Lending growth accelerates across all segments in 2026 Q2
The increase in banks’ claims on businesses (including bonds) sped up by 3.7% in 2026 Q2 (vs +0.7% in 2026 Q1). That rise was mostly driven by ruble loans, with industrial and construction companies accounting for a significant proportion. The forecast for 2026 remains unchanged at 7–11%.
Households’ outstanding mortgages continued to go up moderately, specifically by 1.7% (vs +1.4% in 2026 Q1). The rise in disbursements was recorded primarily in the market segment, whereas the share of subsidised mortgages shrank further, specifically from 68% in 2026 Q1 to about 60% in 2026 Q2. The mortgage portfolio is expected to expand by 6–10% as of the end of 2026, which is consistent with the initial forecast.
The growth rate of the consumer loan portfolio rose markedly to 2.8% (vs +0.3% in 2026 Q1), partly on account of cash loans. This acceleration may be associated with households’ seasonal expenditure on travel. The forecast of the portfolio expansion as of the end of 2026 remains unchanged at 4–8%.
The rise in clients’ funds was moderate, specifically 2.1%. Nevertheless, the forecast for 2026 has been revised upwards from 5–10% to 7–12% as clients’ funds are expected to increase significantly in 2026 H2. This growth will be driven by high payments under government contracts that companies usually receive at the end of the year. Balances of individuals’ accounts will also increase because of annual bonuses and January payments to be made in advance.
Banks’ net profit totalled ₽1.1 trillion in 2026 Q2, which is slightly below ₽1.2 trillion earned in the previous quarter, but exceeds the original forecast of around ₽0.9 trillion over the quarter. The forecast of profit for 2026 has been revised upwards from ₽3.4–3.9 trillion to ₽3.9–4.4 trillion. Profit is the main source of banks’ capital enabling them to continue lending to the economy and simultaneously enhance their resilience by restoring the add-ons to their capital adequacy ratios.
More details are available in the quarterly review Banking Sector.