Talking Trends: price and GDP growth driven by transitory factors
1 September 2026
News
Q2 GDP grew higher than expected. Q3 output of goods and services is held back by a temporary reduction in production capacity. Seasonally adjusted price increases remained elevated in July and likely in August, driven by supply-side constraints. At the same time, the measures of underlying inflation mostly hover in the range of 4–5%.
The gap between wage growth and productivity narrowed, setting the stage for a smoother but more sustainable increase in demand.
Uncertainty about future external economic conditions remains high.
To return inflation to the 4% target in 2027, carefully calibrated monetary policy decisions are needed.
More details are presented in Talking Trends, a Bank of Russia bulletin.
Preview photo: Oscar Nort / Shutterstock / Fotodom