Lending grows moderately in 2026 Q1
In 2026 Q1, the increase in the banking sector’s claims on companies slowed down to 0.7%. This was associated with high budget spending as companies that had received payments under government contracts consequently demonstrated lower demand for funding. As a result, the upper bound of the 2026 forecast range was decreased by 1 pp, now equalling 7–11% as compared to the previously forecast 7–12%.
Growth in households’ outstanding mortgages also decelerated to 1.4% following a surge in demand bolstered by the anticipated tightening of the Family Mortgage programme terms from 1 February 2026. Taking this into account, the upper bound of the 2026 forecast range was lowered, with growth now expected to range from 6% to 10% (vs 6–11% in the previous forecast).
The consumer loan portfolio edged up by 0.3% over the quarter for the first time since late 2024, primarily on account of the credit card segment. In 2026, consumer lending might expand by 4–8%, as compared to the previously forecast rise of 4–9%. The upper bound of the range was decreased due to monetary conditions easing more slowly than expected.
Clients’ funds barely changed, with the forecast for 2026 kept at 5–10%.
Over the quarter, banks earned ₽1.2 trillion in net profit (vs ₽0.9 trillion in 2025 Q4). Their performance was mostly influenced by the decline in operating expenses after seasonally high costs in late 2025 as well as by lower additional provisions for investments in non-core businesses, as banks usually recognise impairment losses on these companies at year end.
The profit forecast for 2026 was adjusted upwards from ₽3.3–3.8 trillion to ₽3.4–3.9 trillion. That said, over the next quarters, profit growth might be hindered by the increase in loss provisions for highly leveraged companies with accumulated problems.
More details are available in the quarterly review Banking Sector.