Ruble moderately weakens and bond yields decline in March
The Russian currency weakened amid falling export sales and the suspension of fiscal rule-based operations by Russia’s Ministry of Finance. Nevertheless, the ruble exchange rate remained close to its 2025 average.
Stock prices moved diversely given the situation in the Middle East and volatile energy and gold prices: securities of oil and gas companies were up by 9.3%, while those of metallurgical companies were down by 12.6%. In these settings, individuals sold shares of major oil and gas companies worth ₽19.4 billion, thus increasing the long position in oil futures by ₽26.1 billion.
Moving in line with the key rate cut, OFZ yields continued to decline, by 41 bp on average along the curve, corporate bond yields also fell, by 67 bp. As a result, banks offered bonds more actively to securitise consumer loans. To limit the possible circumvention of macroprudential regulation, the Bank of Russia is considering tightening requirements for investments in such securities.
More details are available in the new issue of the Financial Market Risks Review.