Corporate loan portfolio and mortgage lending to grow at moderate pace in 2026
Bank lending to companies (including bonds) rose by 5% in 2025 Q4. Loans were raised by companies from a wide range of industries. This figure was up by 11.8% as of the end of the year. The forecast for 2026 remains in the range of 7–12%, and the growth rate is expected to be balanced amid a gradual easing of interest rates.
The growth of households’ outstanding mortgages sped up to 5% over the quarter mainly due to borrowers’ desire to raise subsidised loans before the tightening of the Family Mortgage programme terms from February 2026. The annual mortgage growth on banks’ balance sheets was about 11%, and the forecast for 2026 remains in the range of 6–11%, taking into account the reduced amounts of subsidised lending after the change in its terms.
The consumer loan portfolio decreased by 1.4% in 2025 Q4 and by 4.6% over the year as a whole. The consumer loan market will revive in 2026, and the portfolio may grow by 4–9%.
As of the end of the year, clients’ funds increased by 11.9%. In 2026, the increase may slow to 5–10% as investors are likely to be more interested in securities as returns on them may exceed deposit rates.
Over 2025, banks earned ₽3.5 trillion. In 2026, their profit is expected to be ₽3.3–3.5 trillion, with allocations to corporate loan provisions remaining elevated.
More details are available in the quarterly review Banking Sector.