Bank of Russia raises 2025 corporate lending forecast and maintains outlook for mortgage and consumer lending
In 2025 Q3, the growth of the banking sector’s claims on companies sped up to 3.7% vs 2.5% in 2025 Q2. Loans were mainly raised by developers and large state-owned companies. The forecast for the year has been revised upwards to 10–13% (vs
Over the quarter, the amount of outstanding household mortgage loans rose by 2.4% (+1.4% in the previous quarter), mainly due to government subsidised mortgages. The amount of market-based mortgages issued continued to gradually rise as well, while remaining low because of persistently high interest rates. The forecast for the mortgage portfolio growth by 5–8% (adjusted for securitisation) remains unchanged.
In 2025 Q3, the consumer loan portfolio continued to shrink (-0.9%) amid tight monetary and macroprudential policies. The forecast for the year remains within the range of −1% to +2%.
As in the previous quarter, banks earned ₽1.0 trillion over July–September. As of the end of the year, the sector is expected to generate profit of ₽3.2–3.5 trillion, which is close to the upper bound of the forecast range.
Banks have built up provisions for certain highly leveraged companies whose old loans are maturing. In retail, the cost of credit risk is still above the historical average. Nevertheless, it is expected to gradually decline because the quality of new loans continues to improve and borrowers’ interest burden will decrease as monetary conditions ease.
More details are available in the quarterly review Banking Sector.