Bank of Russia maintains banking sector profit forecast taking into account 2025 H1 result
In 2025 Q2, banks’ claims on companies rose by 2.4% after decreasing by 0.2% in the previous quarter. It is expected that as monetary conditions ease, demand for loans will gradually go up, and claims on companies will rise by
The amount of households’ outstanding mortgage loans was also growing faster than in 2025 Q1 (+1.4% vs +0.01%, respectively). However, this is slightly less than expected by the regulator, so the upper bound of the forecast range for 2025 has been revised and reduced from 8% to 6%.
In 2025 Q2, the consumer loan portfolio continued to shrink (-1.6%) due to tight monetary and macroprudential policies. The upper bound of the forecast range for the year has been adjusted from 4% to 2%.
The net interest margin forecast for the end of 2025 has remained at
More details are available in the quarterly review Banking Sector.