Corporate loan portfolio to return to moderate growth rates in 2025
In 2024 Q4, the growth in corporate lending decelerated to 2.9%, partially due to the fact that companies which received payments under government contracts were actively repaying their outstanding loans. The year-end growth rate reached a rather high level of 17.9%, although a more moderate
The growth rate of the mortgage portfolio also continued to decline, equalling 1.5% over the quarter, mainly owing to a reduction in market-based mortgages amid high interest rates. Mortgage lending expanded by 13.4% over 2024 and is expected to grow by
The consumer loan portfolio contracted by 2% over the quarter but increased by 11.2% overall in 2024. As estimated by the Bank of Russia, its growth rate might drop to the −1% to +4% range in 2025, including because of tight monetary and macroprudential policies.
Corporate deposits with banks were up by 11.9% by the end of 2024, while household deposits increased by 26.1%. A more moderate growth in both corporate
It is assumed that 2025 will see a slight reduction in net interest margin and a significant rise in the cost of risk, which will result in profits dropping to ₽3.0—3.5 trillion.
More details are available in the quarterly review Banking Sector.