Bank of Russia publishes Monetary Policy Report
The document outlines in detail the main points of the press release and the statement of the Bank of Russia Governor following the July key rate meeting of the Board of Directors and presents the key assumptions of the revised medium-term forecast.
The Report also comprises additional analytical materials, i.e. on the mechanism of formation of long-term interest rates in the economy and the role of inflation expectations in this process (Box 1). The analysis of the fiscal policy’s contribution to economic performance in the first six months (Box 2) explains why it is important to focus on the indicators of the fiscal system as a whole rather than on federal budget data alone.
The Annex to the Report describes the new version of the Quarterly Projection Model of the Bank of Russia, which now includes a labour market section. This is one of the models used by the regulator to analyse economic trends, prepare forecasts and make decisions on monetary policy. Adding a toolkit to assess the impact of changes in the labour market on the economy makes it possible to obtain more diverse model calculations in the course of preparing materials for the Board of Directors’ key rate meetings.