Annual inflation continues to rise in June, monthly price growth speeds up

Due to the depreciation of the ruble and steadily high demand, which exceeded supply, prices for cars, foreign and domestic tourism went up. Bird flu outbreaks and rising feed costs accelerated growth in meat prices. Contrastingly, vegetable prices decreased because the new harvest of domestic vegetables began to replace expensive imports. Excluding these temporary factors, price pressure was gradually rising, while remaining moderate.

As the low price growth rates recorded in summer—autumn 2022 are excluded from the calculation of annual inflation, its rate will continue to go up. According to the baseline scenario released in April, the Bank of Russia forecasts that, given the monetary policy pursued, annual inflation will reach 4.5–6.5% in 2023 and stay close to 4% in 2024 and beyond.

More details are available in the new issue of the Bank of Russia’s information and analytical commentary Consumer Price Dynamics.