Estimated actual external debt repayments of non-financial organisations in 2018 Q4 – 2019 Q1

According to macrostatistical data, total external debt payments of non-financial institutions, including principal and interest, will in 2018 Q4 and 2019 Q1 total $21.8 and $10.7 billion respectively.

Macrostatistics show that, consistent with previous years, considerable amounts of payments fall on December ($12.8 billion), with a sizeable amount of such payments expected to be carried over or restructured.

Stripping out intragroup payments, net payments may total up to $20.8 billion in 2018 Q4 and $10.5 billion in 2019 Q1. The balance is made up of intragroup payments (calculated for the top 40 Russian corporate borrowers in the external market).

The Bank of Russia’s survey of top companies suggests that the share of intragroup borrowings in major borrowers’ total external debt payments in 2018 is as follows: 1% – October, 3% – November, 39% – December; in 2019: 0% – January, 0% – February, 6% – March. Adjusted for intragroup payments, major companies’ payments in 2018 Q4 are estimated to equal those in the comparable period of 2017, while 2019 Q1 payments are expected to drop 42% over those in 2018 Q1.

Schedule of external debt payments, 40 largest non-financial corporate borrowers, 2018 Q4 – 2019 Q1*

Indicators 2018 2019
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March
Total due payments, millions of US dollars USA 2,417 1,529 2,544 800 772 3,316
Net payments, millions of US dollars USA 2,402 1,483 1,557 800 772 3,102
Share of intragroup funding 1% 3% 39% 0% 0% 6%

* The Q4 indicators have been adjusted for the updated data from contracts registered by authorised banks in accordance with Bank of Russia Instruction No. 181-I, dated 16 August 2017, ‘On the Procedure for Residents and Non-residents to Submit Documents and Information Confirming Foreign Exchange Transactions to Authorised Banks, on Single Accounting and Reporting Forms Related to Foreign Exchange Transactions, and the Procedure and Timeframes for Their Submission’.

19 October 2018

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