Estimated actual external debt repayments of non-financial organisations in 2016 Q4 – 2017 Q1

According to macroeconomic statistics, in 2016 Q4 – 2017 Q1, the amount of external debt repayments by non-financial organisations, including principal and interest, totals $23 billion and $20.7 billion respectively.

As it is the case, the peak of repayments occurs in December according to macroeconomic statistics ($13.4 billion), with the bigger portion of these repayments likely to be rolled over. This December, the amount of repayments is scheduled to be down by 24% year on year.

Additionally, the schedule for the period under consideration shows that considerable external debt repayments are due in March 2017 ($12.8 billion). According to Bank of Russia estimates, the main portion of these payments is made up of the liabilities of 30 Russian companies – largest borrowers in external markets. Out of this amount, roughly $4.8 billion represent intragroup payments, and $3.8 billion – scheduled Eurobond repayments by several large non-financial organisations which have sufficient foreign currency liquidity to service their debt obligations.

Overall, actual payments may reach $21.6 billion in 2016 Q4 and $15.2 billion in 2017 Q1. The rest of this amount represents intragroup payments (these are established for 30 Russian companies – largest borrowers in external markets), which, as a rule, are likely to be rolled over and restructured.

According to the Bank of Russia’s survey of top companies, the share of intragroup borrowings in the total amount of external debt repayments by large borrowers had the following readings across 2016: 0.2% in October, 17% in November, 29% in December; and across 2017: 24% in January, 23% in February, and 40% in March. As adjusted by intragroup funding, the repayments by the largest companies will total $6.3 billion in 2016 Q4 and $9.8 billion in 2017 Q1.

Schedule of due external debt repayments by 30 top borrowers – non-financial organisations in 2016 Q4 – 2017 Q1*

Indicators 2016 2017
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March
Total due payments, $ million 1,687 3,194 2,749 1,285 2,064 11,958
Net payments, $ million 1,684 2,638 1,938 975 1,599 7,198
Share of intragroup funding 0% 17% 29% 24% 23% 40%

* Q4 readings are adjusted by the up-dated information from transaction specifications issued by authorised banks when executing foreign currency transactions between residents and non-residents.

19 October 2016

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