Estimated actual external debt repayments of non-financial organisations in 2018 Q2 – Q3
According to macroeconomic statistics, external debt payments of non-financial organisations, including principal and interest, will total 14.9 and 16.7 billion US dollars in 2018 Q2 and Q3, respectively.
According to the Bank of Russia, actual payments may reach 13.9 billion US dollars in 2018 Q2 and 12.2 billion US dollars in 2018 Q3. The rest of the amount falls on intragroup payments (calculated for top borrowers) that tend to have a high probability to be prolonged or refinanced. Estimated external debt payments in 2018 Q2 will be 9% less than a year ago while in 2018 Q3 they will be close to the last year’s level.
In 2018, the Bank of Russia has increased the sample of companies that participate in the survey on external debt repayment schedule to 40 firms. The survey showed that the share of intragroup borrowings in the total external debt payments of large borrowers in 2018 amounts to 3% in April, 1% in May, 34% in June, 8% in July, 41% in August and 64% in September. Adjusted for intragroup financing, payments of major companies will be 9.3 billion US dollars in 2018 Q2 and 5.8 billion US dollars in 2018 Q3.
Significantly higher net payments in April, as compared to other months, are related to planned repayment of public debt in the form of Eurobonds by several large non-financial organisations that, in our opinion, have enough FX liquidity to perform their obligations. In September, a significant amount of payments is comprised mostly of intragroup financing that was regularly prolonged in previous periods.
Schedule of external debt payments by top 40 non-financial corporate borrowers, 2018 Q2-Q3*
|Total due payments, millions of US dollars||6,407||1,422||2,488||2,389||3,166||4,768|
|Net payments, millions of US dollars||6,241||1,410||1,650||2,188||1,883||1,723|
|Share of intragroup funding||3%||1%||34%||8%||41%||64%|
* The Q2
indicators have been adjusted for the updated data from contracts registered by
authorised banks in accordance with Bank of Russia Instruction No.
19 April 2018