Estimated actual external debt repayments of non-financial organisations in 2017 Q4 – 2018 Q1

According to statistical data, in 2017 Q4 and 2018 Q1, total external debt payments of non-financial institutions, including principal and interest, will total $25 and $28.6 billion respectively.

According to macroeconomic statistics, a considerable amount of payments are traditionally made in December ($15 billion); however, in practice, the majority of such payments are usually carried over or restructured. Additionally, a comparable volume of payments ($16 billion) falls on January 2018. However, the Bank of Russia estimates that this amount predominately consists of intragroup payments of the largest Russian corporate borrowers in the external market, totalling more than $11 billion or roughly 70% of scheduled payments, according to macroeconomic statistics. These payments are most likely to be carried over and are highly unlikely to exert pressure on borrowers’ liquidity position.

The amount of net payments due (exclusive of intragroup payments) may total up to $23.5 billion in 2017 Q4 and $15.9 billion in 2018 Q1. The balance is represented by intragroup payments calculated for the top 30 Russian corporate borrowers in the external market.

The Bank of Russia’s survey of the largest companies suggests that the percentage shares of intragroup loans in the total external debt payments by large borrowers are as follows: 4% in October, 26% in November, 26% in December 2017; 94% in January, 28% in February and 2% in March 2018. As adjusted for intragroup funding, payments due by the largest companies will be 13 and 18% lower in 2017 Q4 and 2018 Q1 than in comparable periods in 2016 and 2017.

Schedule of external debt payments of 30 largest non-financial corporate borrowers, 2017 Q4 — 2018 Q1*

Indicators	2017			2018
	October	November	December	January	February	March
Payments, million rubles USA	1,680	2,454	2,745	12,117	4,633	3,992
Net payments, million rubles USA	1,615	1,826	2,034	780	3,341	3,899
Share of intragroup funding	4%	26%	26%	94%	28%	2%

* 2017 Q4 indicators are adjusted to recognise transaction specification data available from banks authorised to conduct foreign currency transactions between residents and non-residents.

19 October 2017