Macroeconomic survey of the Bank of Russia
Survey results: October 2022*
| 2021 (факт) |
2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ИПЦ (в % дек. к дек. пред. года) |
8,4 | 12,5 (12,9) |
6,0 (6,0) |
4,2 (4,0) |
4,0 (4,0) |
| Ключевая ставка (в % годовых, в среднем за год, с учетом выходных дней) |
5,7 | 10,6 (10,5) |
7,1 (6,8) |
6,4 (6,1) |
6,0 (5,7) |
| ВВП (%, г/г) |
4,7 | -3,5 (-4,2) |
-2,1 (-1,8) |
1,5 (1,7) |
1,7 (1,6) |
| Уровень безработицы (%, дек., без исключения сезонности) |
4,3 | 4,1 (4,9) |
4,6 (4,9) |
4,5 (4,5) |
4,3 (4,3) |
| Номинальная заработная плата (%, г/г) |
11,5 | 10,6 (10,4) |
7,0 (7,0) |
6,4 (6,3) |
6,0 (6,0) |
| Экспорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
550 | 598 (566) |
487 (480) |
460 (445) |
445 (436) |
| Импорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
380 | 331 (313) |
345 (332) |
353 (350) |
370 (353) |
| Курс USD/RUB (руб. за долл., в среднем за год) |
73,7 | 68,4 (69,4) |
71,4 (73,1) |
74,7 (75,3) |
75,0 (79,7) |
| Нейтральная ключевая ставка (% годовых) |
5,5 (6,0) |
Уровень ключевой ставки, при котором денежно-кредитная политика поддерживает в долгосрочном периоде инфляцию и инфляционные ожидания на цели и ВВП на потенциальном уровне. | |||
| Долгосрочный рост ВВП (%, г/г) |
1,5 (1,5) |
Ожидаемые средние темпы роста потенциального ВВП на горизонте 2026 — 2030 годов. | |||
* In parentheses are the results of the September 2022 survey.
Survey Dates: 12 — 18 October, 2022.
Calculation methodology: The survey results are the median of the 26 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.
The ranges of analysts’ forecasts for most indicators have continued to narrow (see shaded areas in the charts). However, the ranges for nominal wages, the unemployment rate, the exchange rate, exports and imports remain wide over the entire forecast horizon.
- Inflation: In the October survey, the median forecast of the inflation for 2022 decreased by 0.4 p.p. to 12.5%. Forecasts for next years have not changed significantly. Analysts expect inflation to slow to 6% in 2023, return to near 4% in 2024 and remain on the target of the Bank of Russia thereafter. Meanwhile, the forecast for 2024 is slightly increased (by 0.2 p.p. to 4.2%), remaining in the July-September range.
- Key rate: Analysts expect a higher key rate path compared to the September survey. The median forecast for the average key rate for 2022 rose by 0.1 p.p. to 10.6% per annum. Forecasts for
2023-2025 rose by 0.3 p.p. to 7.1% per annum, 6.4% per annum and 6.0% per annum respectively. Meanwhile, the estimate of the neutral key rate decreased by 0.5 p.p. to 5.5% per annum. - GDP: Analysts have improved GDP forecast for 2022 from −4.2% to −3.5%, while lowering forecasts for 2023 from −1.8% to −2.1% and for 2024 from 1.7% to 1.5%. Median GDP growth expectations for 2024 are back to July values. The GDP forecast for 2025 was raised slightly by 0.1 p.p. to 1.7%. This means that, according to analysts, GDP in 2025 will be by 2.5% lower than in 2021 (-2.8% in the September survey). The long-term GDP growth estimate is unchanged at 1.5%.
- Unemployment rate: Analysts expect the unemployment rate to decrease to 4.1% by the end of 2022 (-0.8 p.p. to the September survey) and to rise to 4.6% in 2023 (-0.3 p. p.). As in the September survey, analysts expect the unemployment rate to decline to 4.5% in 2024 and to 4.3% in 2025.
- Nominal wages: The median forecast for 2022 increased by 0.2 p.p. to 10.6%. Forecasts for the next years have not changed significantly (7.0%, 6.4% (+0.1 p.p.) and 6.0% respectively).
- Exports of goods and services: Expectations for 2022 markedly revised upwards to $598 billion (+$32 billion compared to the September survey). Forecasts for
2023-2025 have also been revised upwards to $487 billion (+$7 billion), $460 billion (+$15 billion) and $445 billion (+$9 billion) respectively. Thus, according to analysts’ forecasts, the value of exports in 2025 will be by 19% lower than in 2021. - Imports of goods and services: Analysts have raised their import value forecasts for
2022-2025 compared to the September survey. Imports are expected to be $331 billion (+$18 billion) in 2022, $345 billion (+$13 billion) in 2023 and $353 billion (+3 billion) in 2024. The 2025 forecast is back to the July value and become closer to the 2021 level. It is raised by $17 billion to $370 billion (-2.6% over 2021). - USD/RUB exchange rate: Analysts expect a stronger ruble over the entire forecast horizon compared to the September survey, with a gradual weakening trend. Analysts’ forecast for 2022 — 68.4 rubles per dollar, for 2023 — 71.4 rubles per dollar, for 2024 — 74.7 rubles per dollar. The strongest revision is forecast for 2025 — 75.0 rubles per dollar (in September — 79.7 rubles per dollar).
CPI
%, Dec. to Dec. of the previous year
Key rate
% per annum, average for the year, including weekends
GDP
%, yoy
Unemployment rate
%, Dec, not seasonally adjusted
Nominal wages
%, yoy
USD / RUB rate
RUB per USD, average for the year
Exports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
Imports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
* Note: the upper and lower boundaries of the filled area on the graphs are equal to the maximum and minimum forecast.
The brighter area in the center is the 10 to 90th percentile range.
The next survey will take place from 30 November to 6 December, 2022.
Survey participants
| Bloomberg Economics | Газпромбанк | ИНП РАН | ПФ Капитал | Сбербанк КИБ | ФК Открытие |
| Credit Suisse | ДОМ.РФ | Институт Гайдара | Райффайзенбанк | Сбербанк ЦМИ | «Центр развития» НИУ ВШЭ |
| АКРА | ИБ Синара | ЛОКО-Инвест | Ренессанс Капитал | Телеграм-канал MMI | ЦМАКП |
| Альфа Банк | ИК РЕГИОН | НИФИ Минфина | Росбанк | Телеграм-канал Твердые цифры | Эксперт РА |
| ВЭБ.РФ | ИНГ Банк Евразия | Промсвязьбанк | Россельхозбанк | ФИНАМ | ЮниКредит банк |
Additional materials
Department responsible for publication:
Monetary Policy Department
Was this page useful?
Last updated on: 20.10.2022