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Macroeconomic survey of the Bank of Russia

Survey results: October 2021*

  2020
(actual)
2021 2022 2023 2024
CPI
(%, Dec to Dec of the previous year)
4.9 7.0
(5.9)
4.2
(4.0)
4.0
(4.0)
4.0
Key rate
(% per annum, average for the year)
5.1 5.7
(5.7)
6.8
(6.3)
5.6
(5.5)
5.5
GDP
(%, YoY)
-3.0 4.3
(4.2)
2.4
(2.4)
2.2
(2.2)
2.1
Nominal wages
(%, YoY)
7.3 8.8
(8.1)
6.8
(6.5)
6.1
(6.0)
6.0
CDS spread 5Y in Russia
(b.p., average for the year)
109 91
(95)
90
(90)
90
(90)
90
USD / RUB rate
(RUB per USD, average for the year)
72.3 73.5
(73.5)
72.0
(72.4)
73.0
(73.8)
74.2
Neutral key rate
(% per annum)
5.5
(5,5)
The level of the key rate at which monetary policy keeps inflation and inflation expectations on target over the long term and also keeps GDP at its potential
Long-term GDP
(%, YoY)
2.0
(2.0)
Expected average potential GDP growth rates in 2025 — 2029

*In parentheses are the results of the September 2021 survey.
Survey Dates: 6-12 October, 2021.
Calculation methodology: The survey results are the median of the 28 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.

  • Inflation: the consensus forecast for 2021 was raised from 5.9% in September to 7.0% in October. In 2022 — 2024, the inflation forecast is close to the Bank of Russia’s target.
  • Key rate: the forecast of the average key rate for 2021 remained unchanged relative to September — 5.7% per annum. Forecast for 2022 increased by 0.5 p.p. to 6.8% per annum. The forecast for 2023 increased by 0.1 p.p. to 5.6% per annum. Further, analysts expect the key rate to average 5.5% per year, which is in line with their estimate of a neutral key rate.
  • GDP: the forecast for 2021 was slightly improved compared to September. It rose 0.1 p.p. to 4.3%. In the future, as before, analysts forecast a slowdown in the growth rate. They estimate the potential long-term rate at 2.0%.
  • Nominal Wages: The expected growth for 2021 is 8.8% (8.1% in September). The forecast for 2022 is 6.8% (6.5% in September), 6.1% for 2023, and 6.0% for 2024.
  • CDS spread: Analysts have adjusted their 5-year CDS average forecast for 2021 from 95 bps in September to 91 bps in October. Forecast for 2022-2024 remained unchanged — 90 bps.
  • USD/RUB exchange rate: the forecast has not changed significantly. Analysts forecast an average annual exchange rate in the range of 72.0-74.2 rubles per U.S. dollar for 2021-2024.

CPI

%, Dec. to Dec. of the previous year

Key rate

% per annum, average for the year

GDP

%, yoy

Nominal wages

%, yoy




CDS spread 5Y in Russia

b.p., average for the year

USD / RUB rate

RUB per USD, average for the year

* Note: the upper and lower boundaries of the filled area on the graphs are equal to the maximum and minimum forecast.
The brighter area in the center is the 10 to 90th percentile range.

The next survey will take place from 1 to 7 December, 2021.

Survey participants

BCS Global Markets Morgan Stanley АКРА ИНГ Банк Евразия НИФИ Минфина Сбербанк ЦМИ Эксперт РА
Credit Suisse SOVA Capital Альфа Банк ИНП РАН Райффайзенбанк Сколково-РЭШ ЮниКредит банк
Goldman Sachs Telegram-канал MMI Telegram-канал Твердые цифры VTB Capital Институт Гайдара Ренессанс Капитал ФК Открытие Barclays
J.P. Morgan UBS AG ДОМ.РФ ЛОКО-Инвест Росбанк ЦМАКП ИК РЕГИОН
Сбербанк КИБ ФИНАМ «Центр развития» НИУ ВШЭ Газпромбанк ПФ Капитал ВЭБ.РФ
Department responsible for publication: Monetary Policy Department
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Last updated on: 15.10.2021