Macroeconomic survey of the Bank of Russia
Survey results: May 20251
| 2021 (факт) |
2022 (факт) |
2023 (факт) |
2024 (факт) |
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ИПЦ (в % дек. к дек. пред. года) |
8,4 |
11,9 |
7,4 |
9,5 |
7,1 (7,1) |
4,6 (4,8) |
4,2 (4,0) |
|
| ИПЦ (% к пред. году, в среднем за год) |
6,7 |
13,8 |
5,9 |
8,4 |
9,2 (9,5) |
5,5 (5,6) |
4,3 (4,3) |
|
| Ключевая ставка (в % годовых, в среднем за год, с учетом выходных дней) |
5,7 |
10,6 |
9,9 |
17,5 |
20,0 (20,0) |
14,2 (14,3) |
10,0 (9,7) |
|
| ВВП (%, г/г) |
5,9 |
-1,4 |
4,1 |
4,3 |
1,5 (1,6) |
1,7 (1,7) |
1,9 (2,0) |
|
| Уровень безработицы (%, в среднем за год) |
4,8 |
3,9 |
3,2 |
2,5 |
2,5 (2,5) |
2,7 (2,8) |
3,0 (2,9) |
|
| Номинальная заработная плата (%, г/г, в среднем за год) |
11,5 |
14,1 |
14,6 |
18,3 |
12,7 (12,3) |
8,0 (7,9) |
6,8 (7,0) |
|
| Баланс консолидированного бюджета (% ВВП за соответствующий год) |
0,8 |
-1,4 |
-2,3 |
-1,6 |
-2,0 (-1,5) |
-1,5 (-1,1) |
-1,0 (-1,0) |
|
| Экспорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
550 |
641 |
465 |
475 |
450 (453) |
461 (460) |
479 (472) |
|
| Импорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
377 |
347 |
380 |
381 |
382 (380) |
391 (388) |
399 (399) |
|
| Курс USD/RUB (руб. за долл., в среднем за год) |
73,6 |
67,5 |
84,7 |
92,4 |
91,5 (95,2) |
101,4 (102,4) |
105,6 (106,7) |
|
| Цена нефти для налогобложения2 (долл. США за баррель, в среднем за год) |
69 |
76 |
63 |
68 |
58 (60) |
60 (60) |
60 (60) |
|
| Показатели, рассчитанные на основе полученных ответов: | ||||||||
| Реальная ключевая ставка3 (в % годовых, в среднем за год, с учетом выходных дней) |
-2,7 |
-1,3 |
2,5 |
8,0 |
12,9 (12,6) |
9,3 (9,1) |
5,8 (5,4) |
|
| ВВП (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г.= 100) |
100,0 |
98,6 |
102,6 |
107,1 |
108,7 (108,7) |
110,5 (110,6) |
112,5 (112,5) |
|
| Реальная заработная плата4 (%, г/г, в среднем за год) |
4,5 |
0,3 |
8,2 |
9,1 |
3,2 (2,9) |
2,5 (2,3) |
2,4 (2,4) |
|
| Реальная заработная плата (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г. = 100) |
100,0 |
100,3 |
108,5 |
118,4 |
122,2 (121,9) |
125,2 (124,8) |
127,7 (127,3) |
|
| Торговый баланс (млрд долл. США в год) |
173 |
293 |
86 |
94 |
68 (76) |
68 (70) |
72 (73) |
|
| Нейтральная ключевая ставка (% годовых) |
Медиана | 8,0 (8,0) |
Уровень ключевой ставки, при котором денежно-кредитная политика поддерживает в долгосрочном периоде инфляцию и инфляционные ожидания на цели и ВВП на потенциальном уровне. | |||||
| Центр. тенденция |
(7,0-9,8) |
|||||||
| Долгосрочный рост ВВП (%, г/г) |
Медиана | 1,8 (1,8) |
Ожидаемые средние темпы роста потенциального ВВП на горизонте 2028 — 2032 годов. | |||||
| Центр. тенденция |
(1,2-2,4) |
|||||||
1 In parentheses are the results of the April 2025 survey.
2 Russian oil price used for tax purposes and published monthly on the official website of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.
3 The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the key rate (average for the year) and CPI (Dec to Dec).
4The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the nominal wages and average for the year CPI.
Survey Dates:
Calculation methodology: The survey results are the median of the 27 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.
The ranges of analysts’ forecasts for the next years (see the shaded areas in the charts) have narrowed for most indicators. At the same time, the ranges for GDP, exports, imports, trade balance, USD/RUB exchange rate and oil price are widening by the end of the forecast period.
- Inflation: No significant changes. Inflation forecast for 2025 has not changed and decreased to 4.6% (-0.2 pp compared to the April survey) for 2026. Analysts expect that inflation in 2027 will be close to 4%.
- Key rate: No significant changes. Expectations for the average key rate have slightly decreased for 2026 and risen for 2027. The median forecast is 20.0% per annum for 2025 and 14.2% per annum (-0.1 pp) for 2026. The forecast for the end of the horizon is 10.0% per annum (+0.3 pp). It remains higher than the median estimate of the neutral key rate (8.0% per annum). Real key rate calculated based on analysts’ forecasts is 12.9% (+0.3 pp) in 2025, 9.3% (+0.2 pp) in 2026, and 5.8% (+0.4 pp) in 2027.
- GDP: Forecasts for 2025 and 2027 have been lowered by 0.1 pp, the forecast for 2026 has not changed: 1.5% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027. The median estimate of the long-term GDP growth rate is unchanged at 1.8%. According to analysts, the GDP growth in 2027 to the 2021 level will total +12.5%.
- Unemployment rate: No significant changes. Analysts expect the average unemployment to remain at 2.5% in 2025, rise to 2.7% (-0.1 pp) in 2026 and to 3.0% (+0.1 pp) by the end of the forecast horizon.
- Nominal wages: Analysts have raised their forecast for nominal wage growth in
2025–2026 and slightly lowered the forecast for 2027. They expect nominal wages to grow by 12.7% (+0.4 pp) in 2025, followed by a deceleration to 8.0% (+0.1 pp) in 2026, and to 6.8% (-0.2 pp) by the end of the forecast horizon. Calculations based on analysts’ forecasts of nominal wages and average CPI suggest that real wages will increase by 3.2% in 2025, 2.5% in 2026, and 2.4% in 2027. By the end of the forecast horizon, real wages will be 27.7% higher than in 2021. - Consolidated budget balance: Analysts expect higher consolidated budget deficit in 2025 and 2026: 2.0% of GDP in 2025 (up by 0.5 pp) and 1.5% of GDP in 2026 (up by 0.4 pp). The forecast for 2027 remained unchanged at 1.0% of GDP.
- Exports of goods and services: Forecast for 2025 has been lowered slightly to $450 billion (-$3 billion), remained almost unchanged for 2026 at $461 billion (+$1 billion), and has been raised slightly for 2027 to $479 billion (+$7 billion) in 2027. This is 13% ($71 billion) lower than exports in 2021.
- Imports of goods and services: Forecasts for
2025–2026 have been raised slightly: $382 billion (+$2 billion) and $391 billion (+$3 billion) respectively, the forecast for 2027 is unchanged at $399 billion. This is 6% ($22 billion) higher than imports in 2021. - USD/RUB exchange rate: Analysts expect a stronger ruble over the entire forecast horizon. They expect the average exchange rate to reach 91.5 rubles per dollar in 2025, 101.4 rubles per dollar in 2026, and 105.6 rubles per dollar in 2027 (the ruble in
2025–2027 is 1.0–3.9% stronger compared to the April survey). - Oil price for tax purposes: Forecast for 2025 has been lowered to $58 per barrel (-$2 per barrel compared to the April survey). Forecasts for
2026–2027 are unchanged — analysts expect the yearly average price of Russian oil for tax purposes will be $60 per barrel.
CPI
%, Dec. to Dec. of the previous year
Key rate
% per annum, average for the year, including weekends
Real key rate
% per annum, annual average nominal key rate less CPI Dec. to Dec
GDP
%, YoY
GDP
cumulative level, 2021 = 100
Unemployment rate
%, average for the year
Nominal wages
%, YoY, average for the year
Real wages
cumulative level, 2021 = 100
Consolidated budget balance
% of GDP for the respective year
Exports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
Imports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
Trade balance
billions of US dollars per year
USD / RUB rate
RUB per USD, average for the year
Oil price for tax purposes
US dollars per barrel, average for the year
* Note: the upper and lower boundaries of the filled area on the graphs are equal to the maximum and minimum forecast.
The brighter area in the center is the 10 to 90th percentile range.
The next survey will be carried out from 11 to 15 July 2025.
Survey participants
| Bloomberg Economics | ВЭБ.РФ | ИНП РАН | Россельхозбанк | УК «Первая» |
| АКРА | Газпромбанк | Институт Гайдара | Сбербанк КИБ | ФИНАМ |
| Астра Управление активами | ДОМ.РФ | НИФИ Минфина | Сбербанк ЦМИ | «Центр развития» НИУ ВШЭ |
| Альфа Банк | Евразийский Банк Развития (ЕАБР) | Промсвязьбанк | Телеграм-канал Helicopter Macro | ЦМАКП |
| Банк ДОМ.РФ | ИБ Синара | Райффайзенбанк | Телеграм-канал Truevalue | Эксперт РА |
| БКС Мир инвестиций | ИК РЕГИОН | Ренессанс Капитал | Телеграм-канал Твердые цифры | ЮниКредит банк |
| ВТБ | ИНГ Банк Евразия | Росбанк | Т-Инвестиции |
Additional materials
Department responsible for publication:
Monetary Policy Department
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Last updated on: 28.05.2025