Macroeconomic survey of the Bank of Russia
Survey results: February 2023*
| 2021 (факт) |
2022 (факт / оценка)** |
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ИПЦ (в % дек. к дек. пред. года) |
8,4 | 11,9 (12,3) |
6,0 (5,8) |
4,1 (4,2) |
4,0 (4,0) |
| Ключевая ставка (в % годовых, в среднем за год, с учетом выходных дней) |
5,7 | 10,6 (10,6) |
7,5 (7,3) |
6,8 (6,6) |
6,0 (6,0) |
| ВВП (%, г/г) |
5,6 | -2,5 (-2,9) |
-1,5 (-2,4) |
1,2 (1,5) |
1,5 (1,5) |
| Уровень безработицы (%, дек., без исключения сезонности) |
4,3 | 3,9 (4,0) |
4,3 (4,4) |
4,2 (4,3) |
4,0 (4,2) |
| Номинальная заработная плата (%, г/г) |
11,5 | 12,4 (11,9) |
7,0 (7,5) |
6,8 (6,5) |
6,0 (5,9) |
| Экспорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
550 | 628 (610) |
493 (496) |
500 (475) |
502 (457) |
| Импорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
380 | 346 (335) |
360 (350) |
374 (365) |
390 (375) |
| Курс USD/RUB (руб. за долл., в среднем за год) |
73,7 | 68,6 (68,2) |
72,0 (70,0) |
73,8 (73,0) |
75,6 (75,0) |
| Нейтральная ключевая ставка (% годовых) |
6,0 (5,5) |
Уровень ключевой ставки, при котором денежно-кредитная политика поддерживает в долгосрочном периоде инфляцию и инфляционные ожидания на цели и ВВП на потенциальном уровне. | |||
| Долгосрочный рост ВВП (%, г/г) |
1,5 (1,5) |
Ожидаемые средние темпы роста потенциального ВВП на горизонте 2026 — 2030 годов. | |||
* In parentheses are the results of the December 2022 survey.
** In 2022: CPI, key rate, and exchange rate are actual values; exports and imports are Bank of Russia’s preliminary estimates; GDP, unemployment rate and nominal wages are estimates from the survey.
Survey Dates: 27 — 31 January, 2023.
Calculation methodology: The survey results are the median of the 28 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.
The ranges of analysts’ forecasts for most indicators remained unchanged or continued to narrow (see shaded areas in the charts). The ranges for exports widened markedly over the entire forecast horizon.
- Inflation: In the February survey, the median forecast of the inflation for 2023 rose by 0.2 p.p. to 6.0%. Analysts still expect inflation to return to near 4% in 2024 and remain on the target of the Bank of Russia thereafter.
- Key rate: Analysts expect a higher key rate path in
2023-2024 compared to the December survey. Forecasts increased by 0.2 p.p. to 7.5% per annum and 6.8% per annum respectively. For 2025, the consensus forecast for the average key rate is 6.0% per annum. At the same time, the median estimate of the neutral key rate changed by 0.5 p.p. to 6.0% per annum. - GDP: Analysts improved the GDP estimate for 2022 from −2.9% to
-2.5%. The forecast for 2023 also improved markedly from −2.4% to −1.5%. Analysts have lowered the growth forecast for the Russian economy for 2024 by 0.3 p.p. to +1.2% and left the forecast for 2025 unchanged (+1.5%). According to analysts, the change in GDP in 2025 by 2021 will be −1.4% (-2.4% in the December survey). The estimate of the long-term GDP growth rate is unchanged at 1.5%. - Unemployment rate: no significant change. According to the median forecast, analysts expect a smooth decline in the unemployment rate from 4.3% in 2023 to 4.0% in 2025.
- Nominal wages: The median growth estimate for 2022 increased by 0.5 p.p. to 12.4%. By contrast, the growth forecast for 2023 decreased by 0.5 p.p. to 7.0. Forecasts for subsequent years were raised slightly to 6.8% (+0.3 p.p.) and 6.0% (+0.1 p.p.), respectively.
- Exports of goods and services: the forecast for 2023 is almost unchanged. Expectations for
2024-2025 are again markedly revised upward (2024: $500 billion (+25 billion compared to the December survey), 2025: $502 billion (+$45 billion compared to the December survey). Thus, according to analysts, the value of exports in 2025 will be by 8.7% lower than in 2021 (in the December survey — by 17% lower). - Imports of goods and services: Analysts also raised their import value forecasts for
2023-2025 compared to the December survey. Imports are expected to be $360 billion (+$10 billion) in 2023, $374 billion (+$9 billion) in 2024. Forecasts for 2025 rose to $390 billion (+$15 billion) and exceeded the 2021 level (by 2.6%) for the first time since the surveys had started (since June 2022). - USD/RUB exchange rate: Analysts expect a slightly weaker ruble compared to the December survey over the entire forecast horizon with a gradual weakening trend. Analysts’ forecast for 2023 — 72.0 rubles per dollar, for 2024 — 73.8 rubles per dollar, for 2025 — 75.6 rubles per dollar.
CPI
%, Dec. to Dec. of the previous year
Key rate
% per annum, average for the year, including weekends
GDP
%, yoy
Unemployment rate
%, Dec, not seasonally adjusted
Nominal wages
%, yoy
USD / RUB rate
RUB per USD, average for the year
Exports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
Imports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
* Note: the upper and lower boundaries of the filled area on the graphs are equal to the maximum and minimum forecast.
The brighter area in the center is the 10 to 90th percentile range.
The next survey will take place from 2 to 6 March, 2023.
Survey participants
| Bloomberg Economics | Газпромбанк | ИНП РАН | ПФ Капитал | Сбербанк КИБ | ЮниКредит банк |
| Credit Suisse | ДОМ.РФ | Институт Гайдара | Райффайзенбанк | Сбербанк ЦМИ | |
| АКРА | ИБ Синара | ЛОКО-Инвест | Ренессанс Капитал | Телеграм-канал MMI | |
| Альфа Банк | ИК РЕГИОН | НИФИ Минфина | Росбанк | Телеграм-канал Твердые цифры | |
| ВЭБ.РФ | ИНГ Банк Евразия | Промсвязьбанк | Россельхозбанк | Телеграм-канал Мои инвестиции | |
| ФК Открытие | «Центр развития» НИУ ВШЭ | ЦМАКП | Эксперт РА | ФИНАМ |
Additional materials
Department responsible for publication:
Monetary Policy Department
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Last updated on: 02.02.2023