Macroeconomic survey of the Bank of Russia
Survey results: July 20251
| 2021 (факт) |
2022 (факт) |
2023 (факт) |
2024 (факт) |
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ИПЦ (в % дек. к дек. пред. года) |
8,4 |
11,9 |
7,4 |
9,5 |
6,8 (7,1) |
4,7 (4,6) |
4,3 (4,2) |
4,0 |
|
| ИПЦ (% к пред. году, в среднем за год) |
6,7 |
13,8 |
5,9 |
8,4 |
9,1 (9,2) |
5,5 (5,5) |
4,3 (4,3) |
4,1 |
|
| Ключевая ставка (в % годовых, в среднем за год, с учетом выходных дней) |
5,7 |
10,6 |
9,9 |
17,5 |
19,3 (20,0) |
13,8 (14,2) |
10,2 (10,0) |
8,5 |
|
| ВВП (%, г/г) |
5,9 |
-1,4 |
4,1 |
4,3 |
1,4 (1,5) |
1,6 (1,7) |
1,8 (1,9) |
1,9 |
|
| Уровень безработицы (%, в среднем за год) |
4,8 |
3,9 |
3,2 |
2,5 |
2,4 (2,5) |
2,6 (2,7) |
2,8 (3,0) |
3,0 |
|
| Номинальная заработная плата (%, г/г, в среднем за год) |
11,5 |
14,1 |
14,6 |
18,3 |
12,5 (12,7) |
8,0 (8,0) |
7,0 (6,8) |
6,7 |
|
| Баланс консолидированного бюджета (% ВВП за соответствующий год) |
0,8 |
-1,4 |
-2,3 |
-1,6 |
-2,2 (-2,0) |
-1,5 (-1,5) |
-1,1 (-1,0) |
-1,0 |
|
| Экспорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
550 |
641 |
465 |
475 |
450 (450) |
455 (461) |
474 (479) |
482 |
|
| Импорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
377 |
347 |
380 |
381 |
381 (382) |
390 (391) |
397 (399) |
407 |
|
| Курс USD/RUB (руб. за долл., в среднем за год) |
73,6 |
67,5 |
84,7 |
92,4 |
87,3 (91,5) |
97,5 (101,4) |
101,5 (105,6) |
105,0 |
|
| Цена нефти для налогобложения2 (долл. США за баррель, в среднем за год) |
69 |
76 |
63 |
68 |
58 (58) |
60 (60) |
60 (60) |
60 |
|
| Показатели, рассчитанные на основе полученных ответов: | |||||||||
| Реальная ключевая ставка3 (в % годовых, в среднем за год, с учетом выходных дней) |
-2,7 |
-1,3 |
2,5 |
8,0 |
12,5 (12,9) |
9,0 (9,3) |
5,9 (5,8) |
4,5 |
|
| ВВП (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г.= 100) |
100,0 |
98,6 |
102,6 |
107,1 |
108,6 (108,7) |
110,4 (110,5) |
112,3 (112,5) |
114,7 |
|
| Реальная заработная плата4 (%, г/г, в среднем за год) |
4,5 |
0,3 |
8,2 |
9,1 |
3,0 (3,2) |
2,6 (2,5) |
2,6 (2,4) |
2,4 |
|
| Реальная заработная плата (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г. = 100) |
100,0 |
100,3 |
108,5 |
118,4 |
122,0 (122,2) |
124,9 (125,2) |
127,5 (127,7) |
131,2 |
|
| Торговый баланс (млрд долл. США в год) |
173 |
293 |
86 |
94 |
66 (68) |
65 (68) |
72 (72) |
71 |
|
| Нейтральная ключевая ставка (% годовых) |
Медиана | 8,0 (8,0) |
Уровень ключевой ставки, при котором денежно-кредитная политика поддерживает в долгосрочном периоде инфляцию и инфляционные ожидания на цели и ВВП на потенциальном уровне. | ||||||
| Центр. тенденция |
(7,0-9,0) |
||||||||
| Долгосрочный рост ВВП (%, г/г) |
Медиана | 1,8 (1,8) |
Ожидаемые средние темпы роста потенциального ВВП на горизонте 2029 — 2033 годов. | ||||||
| Центр. тенденция |
(1,2-2,3) |
||||||||
1 In parentheses are the results of the May 2025 survey.
2 Russian oil price used for tax purposes and published monthly on the official website of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.
3 The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the key rate (average for the year) and CPI (Dec to Dec).
4 The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the nominal wages and average for the year CPI.
Survey Dates:
Calculation methodology: The survey results are the median of the 30 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.
The ranges of analysts’ forecasts for the next years (see the shaded areas in the charts) have narrowed for most indicators. At the same time, the ranges for key rate, GDP, exports, imports, trade balance, USD/RUB exchange rate and oil price are widening by the end of the forecast period.
- Inflation: Analysts have lowered the forecast for 2025 to 6.8% (-0.3 pp to the May survey). Forecasts for
2026-2027 have been raised by 0.1 pp to 4.7% and 4.3% respectively. Analysts expect that inflation in2027-2028 will be close to 4%. - Key rate: Expectations for the average key rate in 2025 and 2026 have been lowered to 19.3% per annum (-0.7 pp; implies that the average key rate will average 17.4% per annum for the remainder of 2025) and 13.8% per annum (-0.4 pp). The forecast for 2027 has been raised by 0.2 pp to 10.2% per annum. The forecast for the end of the horizon is 8.5% per annum. It remains higher than the median estimate of the neutral key rate (8.0% per annum). Real key rate calculated based on analysts’ forecasts is 12.5% (-0.4 pp) in 2025, 9.0% (-0.3 pp) in 2026, 5.9% (+0.1 pp) in 2027 and 4.5% in 2028.
- GDP: Forecasts for
2025-2027 have been lowered by 0.1 pp: 1.4% in 2025, 1.6% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. The forecast for the end of the horizon is 1.9%. The median estimate of the long-term GDP growth rate is unchanged at 1.8%. According to analysts, the GDP growth in 2028 to the 2021 level will total +14.7%. I - Unemployment rate: No significant changes. Analysts expect the average unemployment to fall to 2.4% (-0.1 pp) in 2025, rise to 2.6% (-0.1 pp) in 2026, to 2.8% (-0.2 pp) in 2027 and to 3.0% by the end of the forecast horizon.
- Nominal wages: Analysts have slightly lowered their forecast for nominal wage growth in 2025 and raised it in 2027. They expect nominal wages to grow by 12.5% (-0.2 pp) in 2025, followed by a deceleration to 8.0% in 2026, to 7.0% (+0.2 pp) in 2027 and to 6.7% by the end of the forecast horizon. Calculations based on analysts’ forecasts of nominal wages and average CPI suggest that real wages will increase by 3.0% in 2025, by 2.6% in 2026 and 2027, and by 2.4% in 2028. By the end of the forecast horizon, real wages will be 31.2% higher than in 2021.
- Consolidated budget balance: Analysts expect slightly higher consolidated budget deficit in 2025 and 2027 — 2.2% of GDP (up by 0.2 pp) in 2025, 1.5% of GDP in 2026, 1.1% of GDP (up by 0.1 pp) in 2027 and 1.0% of GDP in 2028.
- Exports of goods and services: The forecasts for
2026-2027 have been lowered slightly. The forecast for 2025 is $450 billion, for 2026 is $455 billion (-$6 billion), and for 2027 is $474 billion (-$5 billion) respectively. The forecast for 2028 is $482 billion. This is 12% ($68 billion) lower than exports in 2021. - Imports of goods and services: No significant changes – $381 billion (-$1 billion) in 2025, $390 billion (-$1 billion) in 2026 and $397 billion (-$2 billion) in 2027. The forecast for 2028 is $407 billion. This is 8% ($30 billion) higher than imports in 2021.
- USD/RUB exchange rate: Analysts expect a stronger ruble over the entire forecast horizon. The forecast for 2025 — 87.3 rubles per dollar (it implies that the average exchange rate in July-December 2025 will amount to 87.6 rubles per dollar ), for 2026 — 97.5 rubles per dollar, for 2027 — 101.5 rubles per dollar (the ruble in
2025-2027 is 3.8-4.6% stronger compared to the May survey). Forecast for 2028 — 105.0 per dollar. - Oil price for tax purposes: No changes — analysts expect the yearly average price of Russian oil for tax purposes will be $58 per barrel in 2025 (it implies that the average price of oil for tax July-December 2025 will amount to $57 per barrel) and $60 per barrel in subsequent years.
CPI
%, Dec. to Dec. of the previous year
Key rate
% per annum, average for the year, including weekends
Real key rate
% per annum, annual average nominal key rate less CPI Dec. to Dec
GDP
%, YoY
GDP
cumulative level, 2021 = 100
Unemployment rate
%, average for the year
Nominal wages
%, YoY, average for the year
Real wages
cumulative level, 2021 = 100
Consolidated budget balance
% of GDP for the respective year
Exports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
Imports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
Trade balance
billions of US dollars per year
USD / RUB rate
RUB per USD, average for the year
Oil price for tax purposes
US dollars per barrel, average for the year
* Note: the upper and lower boundaries of the filled area on the graphs are equal to the maximum and minimum forecast.
The brighter area in the center is the 10 to 90th percentile range.
The next survey will be carried out from 29 August to 2 September 2025.
Survey participants
| АКРА | Газпромбанк | Институт Гайдара | Сбербанк КИБ | ФИНАМ |
| Астра Управление активами | ДОМ.РФ | НИФИ Минфина | Сбербанк ЦМИ | «Центр развития» НИУ ВШЭ |
| Альфа Банк | Евразийский Банк Развития (ЕАБР) | Промсвязьбанк | Телеграм-канал Helicopter Macro | ЦМАКП |
| Банк ДОМ.РФ | ИБ Синара | Райффайзенбанк | Телеграм-канал Truevalue | Эксперт РА |
| БКС Мир инвестиций | ИК РЕГИОН | Ренессанс Капитал | Телеграм-канал Твердые цифры | ЮниКредит банк |
| ВТБ | ИНГ Банк Евразия | Росбанк | Т-Инвестиции | |
| ВЭБ.РФ | ИНП РАН | Россельхозбанк | УК «Первая» |
Additional materials
Department responsible for publication:
Monetary Policy Department
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Last updated on: 16.07.2025