Macroeconomic survey of the Bank of Russia
Survey results: June 20261
| 2021 (факт) |
2022 (факт) |
2023 (факт) |
2024 (факт) |
2025 (факт) |
2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ИПЦ (в % дек. к дек. пред. года) |
8,4 |
11,9 |
7,4 |
9,5 |
5,6 |
5,3 (5,5) |
4,4 (4,4) |
4,0 (4,0) |
4,0 |
|||
| ИПЦ (% к пред. году, в среднем за год) |
6,7 |
13,8 |
5,9 |
8,4 |
8,7 |
5,4 (5,6) |
4,5 (4,5) |
4,2 (4,1) |
4,0 |
|||
| Ключевая ставка (в % годовых, в среднем за год, с учетом выходных дней) |
5,7 |
10,6 |
9,9 |
17,5 |
19,2 |
14,1 (14,1) |
10,6 (10,7) |
9,0 (9,0) |
8,1 |
|||
| ВВП (%, г/г) |
5,9 |
-1,4 |
4,1 |
4,9 |
1,0 |
0,7 (1,0) |
1,5 (1,5) |
1,7 (1,8) |
1,8 |
|||
| Уровень безработицы (%, в среднем за год) |
4,8 |
3,9 |
3,2 |
2,5 |
2,2 |
2,3 (2,3) |
2,5 (2,5) |
2,6 (2,6) |
2,7 |
|||
| Номинальная заработная плата (%, г/г, в среднем за год) |
11,5 |
14,1 |
14,6 |
19,0 |
13,5 |
9,5 (9,0) |
7,8 (7,8) |
7,0 (7,0) |
6,5 |
|||
| Баланс консолидированного бюджета (% ВВП за соответствующий год) |
0,8 |
-1,4 |
-2,3 |
-1,6 |
-3,9 |
-2,6 (-2,5) |
-1,9 (-1,6) |
-1,5 (-1,3) |
-1,4 |
|||
| Экспорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
550 |
641 |
465 |
477 |
468 |
525 (506) |
493 (488) |
491 (487) |
495 |
|||
| Импорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
377 |
347 |
380 |
383 |
400 |
420 (412) |
432 (417) |
439 (431) |
448 |
|||
| Курс USD/RUB (руб. за долл., в среднем за год) |
73,6 |
67,5 |
84,7 |
92,4 |
83,4 |
78,1 (81,2) |
86,2 (89,0) |
94,3 (96,3) |
97,8 |
|||
| Цена нефти для налогобложения2 (долл. США за баррель, в среднем за год) |
69 |
76 |
63 |
68 |
56 |
70 (65) |
60 (60) |
59 (60) |
57 |
|||
| Показатели, рассчитанные на основе полученных ответов: | ||||||||||||
| Реальная ключевая ставка3 (в % годовых, в среднем за год, с учетом выходных дней) |
-2,7 |
-1,3 |
2,5 |
8,0 |
13,6 |
8,7 (8,5) |
6,1 (6,2) |
5,0 (5,0) |
4,2 |
|||
| ВВП (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г.= 100) |
100,0 |
98,6 |
102,6 |
107,7 |
108,7 |
109,5 (109,8) |
111,2 (111,5) |
113,0 (113,3) |
115,3 |
|||
| Реальная заработная плата4 (%, г/г, в среднем за год) |
4,5 |
0,3 |
8,2 |
9,7 |
4,4 |
3,9 (3,3) |
3,2 (2,7) |
2,7 (2,6) |
2,5 |
|||
| Реальная заработная плата (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г. = 100) |
100,0 |
100,3 |
108,5 |
119,1 |
124,3 |
129,1 (128,4) |
133,3 (132,2) |
136,7 (135,3) |
140,2 |
|||
| Торговый баланс (товары и услуги) (млрд долл. США в год) |
173 |
293 |
86 |
94 |
68 |
102 (98) |
63 (68) |
58 (62) |
51 |
|||
| Нейтральная ключевая ставка (% годовых) |
Медиана | 8,0 (8,0) |
Уровень ключевой ставки, при котором денежно-кредитная политика поддерживает в долгосрочном периоде инфляцию и инфляционные ожидания на цели и ВВП на потенциальном уровне. | |||||||||
| Центр. тенденция |
(7,0-9,3) |
|||||||||||
| Долгосрочный рост ВВП (%, г/г) |
Медиана | 1,7 (1,7) |
Ожидаемые средние темпы роста потенциального ВВП на горизонте 2030 – 2034 годов. | |||||||||
| Центр. тенденция |
(1,2-2,2) |
|||||||||||
1 1 In parentheses are the results of the April 2026 survey.
2 Russian oil price used for tax purposes and published monthly on the official website of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.
3 The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the key rate (average for the year) and CPI (Dec to Dec).
4 The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the nominal wages and average for the year CPI.
Survey Dates: 5 – 9 June, 2026.
Calculation methodology: The survey results are the median of the 31 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.
The ranges of analysts’ forecasts for the next years (see the shaded areas in the charts) have narrowed for most indicators.
- Inflation: Analysts have lowered their forecast for 2026 to 5.3% (-0.2 pp compared to the April survey). Forecasts for the next years are unchanged: analysts expect that inflation will slow down to 4.4% in 2027, return to 4% in 2028 and remain close to the target further on.
- Key rate: Forecasts are almost unchanged at 14.1% per annum in 2026, 10.6% per annum (-0.1 pp) in 2027 and 9.0% per annum in 2028. The forecast for the end of the horizon stands at 8.1% per annum. This is almost equal to the median estimate of the neutral key rate (8.0% per annum). Real key rate calculated based on analysts’ forecasts is 8.7% (+0.2 pp) in 2026, 6.1% (-0.1 pp) in 2027, 5.0% in 2028 and 4.2% in 2029.
- GDP: Growth forecast for 2026 has been lowered to 0.7% (-0.3 pp). Growth forecasts for the next years have not changed significantly: 1.5% for 2027, 1.7% (-0.1 pp) for 2028 and 1.8% for 2029. The median estimate of the long-term GDP growth rate is unchanged at 1.7%. According to analysts, the accumulated GDP growth from 2021 to 2029 will total +15.3% (1.9% per year on average).
- Unemployment rate: Forecasts are unchanged. Analysts expect the average unemployment rate to be 2.3% in 2026 and to rise to 2.5% in 2027, to 2.6% in 2028 and to 2.7% in 2029, remaining significantly below the 2021 (4.8%) and 2023 (3.2%) figures.
- Nominal wages: Analysts have raised their forecast for nominal wage growth for 2026. They expect nominal wage growth to slow down to 9.5% (+0.5 pp) in 2026, to 7.8% in 2027, to 7.0% in 2028 and to 6.5% in 2029. Calculations based on analysts’ forecasts of nominal wages and average inflation suggest that real wages will increase by 3.9% in 2026, by 3.2% in 2027, by 2.7% in 2028 and by 2.5% in 2029. By the end of the forecast horizon, real wages will be 40.2% higher than in 2021 (5.0% per year on average).
- Consolidated budget balance: Analysts expect higher consolidated budget deficit over the entire horizon: 2.6% of GDP (up by 0.1 pp) in 2026, 1.9% of GDP (up by 0.3 pp) in 2027 and 1.5% of GDP (up by 0.2 pp) in 2028. According to analysts, consolidated budget deficit will be 1.4% of GDP by the end of the horizon.
- Exports of goods and services: Forecasts for 2026– 2028 have been raised to $525 billion (+$19 billion) in 2026, $493 billion (+$5 billion) in 2027 and $491 billion (+$4 billion) in 2028. The forecast for 2029 equals $495 billion. This is 10% ($54 billion) lower than exports in 2021.
- Imports of goods and services: Forecasts have also been raised over the entire horizon: to $420 billion (+$8 billion) in 2026, $432 billion (+$15 billion) in 2027 and $439 billion (+$8 billion) in 2028. The forecast for 2029 equals $448 billion. This is 19% ($71 billion) higher than imports in 2021.
- USD/RUB exchange rate: Analysts expect a stronger ruble over the entire forecast horizon compared to the April survey. The forecast of the average exchange rate is 78.1 rubles per dollar in 2026, 86.2 rubles per dollar in 2027 and 94.3 rubles per dollar in 2028. The ruble is expected to be 2.1–3.8% stronger compared to the April survey. The forecast for the end of the horizon stands at 97.8 rubles per dollar.
- Oil price for tax purposes: Forecast for has been raised to $70 per barrel. Analysts expect that oil price for tax purposes will fall to $60 per barrel in 2027, $59 per barrel in 2028 and $57 per barrel by the end of the horizon.
CPI
%, Dec. to Dec. of the previous year
CPI, forecast history
%, Dec. to Dec. of the previous year
Key rate
% per annum, average for the year, including weekends
Key rate, forecast history
% per annum, average for the year, including weekends
Real key rate
% per annum, annual average nominal key rate less CPI Dec. to Dec
GDP
%, YoY
GDP, forecast history
%, YoY
GDP
cumulative level, 2021 = 100
Unemployment rate
%, average for the year
Unemployment rate, forecast history
%, average for the year
The February 2023 – March 2025 results are the median forecasts based on survey participants' responses on the year-end unemployment rate (as the average of the year-end values for the reporting and the previous year).
Nominal wages
%, YoY, average for the year
Nominal wages, forecast history
%, YoY, average for the year
Real wages
cumulative level, 2021 = 100
Consolidated budget balance
% of GDP for the respective year
Consolidated budget balance, forecast history
% of GDP for the respective year
Exports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
Exports of goods and services, forecast history
billions of US dollars per year
Imports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
Imports of goods and services, forecast history
billions of US dollars per year
Trade balance
billions of US dollars per year
USD / RUB rate
RUB per USD, average for the year
USD / RUB rate, forecast history
RUB per USD, average for the year
Oil price for tax purposes
US dollars per barrel, average for the year
Oil price for tax purposes, forecast history
US dollars per barrel, average for the year
* Note: the upper and lower boundaries of the filled area on the graphs are equal to the maximum and minimum forecast.
The brighter area in the center is the 10 to 90th percentile range.
The next survey will be carried out from 10 to 14 July 2026.
Survey participants
| АКРА | ВЭБ.РФ | ИНП РАН | Сбер КИБ | Т-Инвестиции |
| Астра Управление активами | Газпромбанк | Институт Гайдара | Сбер ЦМИ | УК «Первая» |
| Альфа Банк | ДОМ.РФ | НИФИ Минфина | Совкомбанк | ФИНАМ |
| Банк ДОМ.РФ | Евразийский Банк Развития (ЕАБР) | Промсвязьбанк | Телеграм-канал Helicopter Macro | «Центр развития» НИУ ВШЭ |
| Банк Уралсиб | ИБ Синара | Ренессанс Капитал | Телеграм-канал Spydell_finance | ЦМАКП |
| БКС Мир инвестиций | ИК РЕГИОН | Россельхозбанк | Телеграм-канал Truevalue | Эксперт РА |
| ВТБ | ИНГ Банк Евразия | РЭШ | Телеграм-канал Твердые цифры | ЮниКредит банк |
Additional materials
Department responsible for publication:
Monetary Policy Department
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Last updated on: 10.06.2026