Macroeconomic survey of the Bank of Russia
Survey results: March 20261
| 2021 (факт) |
2022 (факт) |
2023 (факт) |
2024 (факт) |
2025 (факт / оценка)2 |
2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ИПЦ (в % дек. к дек. пред. года) |
8,4 |
11,9 |
7,4 |
9,5 |
5,6 |
5,3 (5,3) |
4,1 (4,1) |
4,0 (4,0) |
||||
| ИПЦ (% к пред. году, в среднем за год) |
6,7 |
13,8 |
5,9 |
8,4 |
8,7 |
5,3 (5,6) |
4,4 (4,4) |
4,0 (4,0) |
||||
| Ключевая ставка (в % годовых, в среднем за год, с учетом выходных дней) |
5,7 |
10,6 |
9,9 |
17,5 |
19,2 |
14,0 (14,1) |
10,3 (10,4) |
8,9 (9,0) |
||||
| ВВП (%, г/г) |
5,9 |
-1,4 |
4,1 |
4,9 (4,3) |
1,0 |
1,0 (1,1) |
1,6 (1,7) |
1,8 (1,8) |
||||
| Уровень безработицы (%, в среднем за год) |
4,8 |
4,0 |
3,2 |
2,5 |
2,2 |
2,4 (2,4) |
2,6 (2,6) |
2,7 (2,7) |
||||
| Номинальная заработная плата (%, г/г, в среднем за год) |
11,5 |
14,1 |
14,6 |
19,0 |
13,5 |
8,0 (8,2) |
7,6 (7,5) |
7,0 (6,9) |
||||
| Баланс консолидированного бюджета (% ВВП за соответствующий год) |
0,8 |
-1,4 |
-2,3 |
-1,6 |
-3,9 |
-2,8 (-2,5) |
-1,7 (-1,5) |
-1,4 (-1,4) |
||||
| Экспорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
550 |
641 |
465 |
477 |
466 |
463 (446) |
476 (468) |
495 (482) |
||||
| Импорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
377 |
347 |
380 |
383 |
398 |
405 (396) |
413 (405) |
427 (421) |
||||
| Курс USD/RUB (руб. за долл., в среднем за год) |
73,6 |
67,5 |
84,7 |
92,4 |
83,4 |
84,0 (85,0) |
92,3 (94,5) |
97,8 (98,9) |
||||
| Цена нефти для налогобложения3 (долл. США за баррель, в среднем за год) |
69 |
76 |
63 |
68 |
52 |
55 (50) |
55 (56) |
59 (60) |
||||
| Показатели, рассчитанные на основе полученных ответов: | ||||||||||||
| Реальная ключевая ставка4 (в % годовых, в среднем за год, с учетом выходных дней) |
-2,7 |
-1,3 |
2,5 |
8,0 |
13,6 |
8,8 (8,6) |
5,8 (5,8) |
4,8 (4,5) |
||||
| ВВП (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г.= 100) |
100,0 |
98,6 |
102,6 |
107,7 (107,1) |
108,7 (108,0) |
109,8 (109,2) |
111,5 (111) |
113,7 (113,3) |
||||
| Реальная заработная плата5 (%, г/г, в среднем за год) |
4,5 |
0,3 |
8,2 |
9,7 |
4,4 |
2,9 (2,7) |
2,9 (2,4) |
2,6 (2,5) |
||||
| Реальная заработная плата (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г. = 100) |
100,0 |
100,3 |
108,5 |
119,1 |
124,3 |
127,8 (127,7) |
131,5 (130,8) |
134,7 (134,1) |
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| Торговый баланс (товары и услуги) (млрд долл. США в год) |
173 |
293 |
86 |
94 |
68 |
58 (52) |
61 (62) |
70 (65) |
||||
| Нейтральная ключевая ставка (% годовых) |
Медиана | 8,0 (8,0) |
Уровень ключевой ставки, при котором денежно-кредитная политика поддерживает в долгосрочном периоде инфляцию и инфляционные ожидания на цели и ВВП на потенциальном уровне. | |||||||||
| Центр. тенденция |
(7,3-9,5) |
|||||||||||
| Долгосрочный рост ВВП (%, г/г) |
Медиана | 1,8 (2,0) |
Ожидаемые средние темпы роста потенциального ВВП на горизонте 2029 – 2033 годов. | |||||||||
| Центр. тенденция |
(1,5-2,2) |
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1 1 In parentheses are the results of the February 2026 survey.
2 Exports, imports and trade balance are Bank of Russia’s preliminary estimates; others are actual values.
3 Russian oil price used for tax purposes and published monthly on the official website of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation.
4 The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the key rate (average for the year) and CPI (Dec to Dec).
5 The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the nominal wages and average for the year CPI.
Survey Dates: 6 – 10 March, 2026.
Calculation methodology: The survey results are the median of the 27 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.
The ranges of analysts’ forecasts for the next years (see the shaded areas in the charts) have narrowed for most indicators. At the same time, the ranges for the key rate, unemployment rate, exports, imports, trade balance, USD/RUB exchange rate and oil price are widening by the end of the forecast period.
- Inflation: No changes. Analysts expect that inflation will be 5.3% in 2026 and close to the target in 2027–2028.
- Key rate: Forecasts have been slightly lowered over the entire horizon (-0.1 pp) to 14.0% per annum in 2026, 10.3% per annum in 2027 and 8.9% per annum in 2028. The forecast for the end of the horizon remains higher than the median estimate of the neutral key rate (8.0% per annum). Real key rate calculated based on analysts’ forecasts is 8.8% (+0.2 pp) in 2026, 5.8% in 2027 and 4.8% (+0.3 pp) in 2028.
- GDP: Growth forecast is almost unchanged at 1.0% (-0.1 pp) for 2026, 1.6% (-0.1 pp) for 2027 and 1.8% for 2028. The median estimate of the long-term GDP growth rate has decreased by 0.2 pp to 1.8%. According to analysts, the accumulated GDP growth in 2028 to the 2021 level will total +13.7% (2.0% per year on average).
- Unemployment rate: No changes. Analysts expect the average unemployment rate to rise to 2.4% in 2026, to 2.6% in 2027 and to 2.7% in 2028, remaining significantly below the 2021 (4.8%) and 2023 (3.2%) figures.
- Nominal wages: Analysts have not changed their forecast for nominal wage growth significantly. They expect nominal wage growth to slow down to 8.0% (-0.2 pp) in 2026, to 7.6% (+0.1 pp) in 2027 and to 7.0% (+0.1 pp) in 2028. Calculations based on analysts’ forecasts of nominal wages and average inflation suggest that real wages will increase by 2.9% in 2026 and 2027 and by 2.6% in 2028. By the end of the forecast horizon, real wages will be 34.7% higher than in 2021 (5.0% per year on average).
- Consolidated budget balance: Analysts expect slightly higher consolidated budget deficit in 2026 and 2027: 2.8% of GDP (up by 0.3 pp) and 1.7% of GDP (up by 0.2 pp), respectively. Forecast for 2028 is unchanged at 1.4% of GDP.
- Exports of goods and services: Forecast has been raised over the entire horizon to $463 billion (+$17 billion) in 2026 and to $476 billion (+$8 billion) in 2027. The forecast for 2028 is $495 billion (+$13 billion). This is 10% ($55 billion) lower than exports in 2021.
- Imports of goods and services: Forecast has also been raised to $405 billion (+$9 billion) in 2026 and $413 billion (+$8 billion) in 2027. The forecast for 2028 is $427 billion (+$6 billion). This is 13% ($50 billion) higher than imports in 2021.
- USD/RUB exchange rate: Analysts expect a stronger ruble over the entire forecast horizon compared to the February survey. The forecast of the average exchange rate is 84.0 rubles per dollar in 2026, 92.3 rubles per dollar in 2027 and 97.8 rubles per dollar in 2028. The ruble is expected to be 1.1–2.4% stronger compared to the February survey.
- Oil price for tax purposes: Forecast for 2026 has been raised to $55 per barrel. Forecast for 2027 is also $55 per barrel. Analysts expect the yearly average price of Russian oil for tax purposes will rise to $59 per barrel by the end of forecast horizon.
CPI
%, Dec. to Dec. of the previous year
CPI, forecast history
%, Dec. to Dec. of the previous year
Key rate
% per annum, average for the year, including weekends
Key rate, forecast history
% per annum, average for the year, including weekends
Real key rate
% per annum, annual average nominal key rate less CPI Dec. to Dec
GDP
%, YoY
GDP, forecast history
%, YoY
GDP
cumulative level, 2021 = 100
Unemployment rate
%, average for the year
Unemployment rate, forecast history
%, average for the year
The February 2023 – March 2025 results are the median forecasts based on survey participants' responses on the year-end unemployment rate (as the average of the year-end values for the reporting and the previous year).
Nominal wages
%, YoY, average for the year
Nominal wages, forecast history
%, YoY, average for the year
Real wages
cumulative level, 2021 = 100
Consolidated budget balance
% of GDP for the respective year
Consolidated budget balance, forecast history
% of GDP for the respective year
Exports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
Exports of goods and services, forecast history
billions of US dollars per year
Imports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
Imports of goods and services, forecast history
billions of US dollars per year
Trade balance
billions of US dollars per year
USD / RUB rate
RUB per USD, average for the year
USD / RUB rate, forecast history
RUB per USD, average for the year
Oil price for tax purposes
US dollars per barrel, average for the year
Oil price for tax purposes, forecast history
US dollars per barrel, average for the year
* Note: the upper and lower boundaries of the filled area on the graphs are equal to the maximum and minimum forecast.
The brighter area in the center is the 10 to 90th percentile range.
The next survey will be carried out from 10 to 14 April 2026.
Survey participants
| АКРА | Газпромбанк | Институт Гайдара | Сбер КИБ | ФИНАМ |
| Астра Управление активами | ДОМ.РФ | НИФИ Минфина | Сбер ЦМИ | «Центр развития» НИУ ВШЭ |
| Альфа Банк | Евразийский Банк Развития (ЕАБР) | Промсвязьбанк | Телеграм-канал Helicopter Macro | ЦМАКП |
| Банк ДОМ.РФ | ИБ Синара | Райффайзенбанк | Телеграм-канал Truevalue | Эксперт РА |
| БКС Мир инвестиций | ИК РЕГИОН | Ренессанс Капитал | Телеграм-канал Твердые цифры | ЮниКредит банк |
| ВТБ | ИНГ Банк Евразия | Россельхозбанк | Т-Инвестиции | |
| ВЭБ.РФ | ИНП РАН | РЭШ | УК «Первая» |
Additional materials
Department responsible for publication:
Monetary Policy Department
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Last updated on: 11.03.2026