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fuels and
lubricants, utility services, as well as higher labour costs as key contributing factors. Contrastingly, the
estimates of both current and future demand continued
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31.07.2025
The Bank of Russia’s Medium-term Forecast Following the Board Of Directors’ Key Rate Meeting on 25 July 2025.
5 In April, the Bank of
most representative sample in Russia. On average, about 15,000
enterprises of key types of economic activity took part in the surveys every month in
means that monetary policy will be tight for a long period. Future key
rate decisions will depend on the speed and sustainability of the decline
is based on interest rates and yields in the key market segments, influencing each other (the
key rate has a direct effect on short-term money
226
25.07.2025
of the Key Rate Discussion and the Commentary on the Medium-term Forecast.
The Bank of Russia Board of Directors will hold its next key rate
227
25.07.2025
key rate reductions. The option of keeping the key rate unchanged was not considered. We discussed a 100 bp, 150 bp, and 200 bp key
Bank of Russia’s medium-term forecast
following the Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting on 25 July 2025
Key forecast parameters of
229
25.07.2025
of the Key Rate Discussion and the Commentary on the Medium-term Forecast.
The Bank of Russia Board of Directors will hold its next key rate
4% and return the economy to a bal-
anced growth path. The key rate path will be determined by the pace of reduction in in-