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alternatives Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2023-01-03| journal article, pages 26-44. Penikas H. Smoothing the Key Rate Pass-Through: What to Keep in Mind When Interpreting Econometric Estimates Russian

most representative sample in Russia. On average, about 15,000 enterprises of key types of economic activity took part in the surveys every month in

inflation and food inflation showed the highest 10-year average annual rates among key CPI inflation components (6.6% and 6.4%, respectively). Housing and utility

AND KEY RATE • Monetary policy and key rate. On 19 December 2025, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to cut the key rate

of the board of directors (supervisory boards), members of executive bodies and key executives about the institution’s exposure to climate risks contributes to the

INFLATION RISKS ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 8 CONCLUSIONS FOR MONETARY POLICY AND THE KEY RATE DECISION ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 9 Summary of the Key Rate Discussion 2 ECONOMIC SITUATION AND INFLATION MAIN

participants supported a 50 bp key rate cut to 16.00% per annum. The meeting also considered reducing the key rate by 100 bp to

made for them. Accrued interest receivable/ The Bank of Russia key rate (hereinafter, the key rate) is an payable is included in related type of

forecast accuracy (at least at the 9- to 12-month horizon) are preserved. Key words: Phillips curve, inflation, business cycle, nonlinearity JEL-codes: C22, C53, E31, E47

model intact while reducing misspecification introduced by an exogenous seasonal pre-filter. The key idea is to treat year-over-year (y/y) growth rates as observed and