The Bank of Russia estimates actual external debt repayments in the first half of the year

The Bank of Russia’s estimates published on the regulator’s website suggest that actual external debt repayments of Russian non-financial organisations may total up to $15.2 billion in 2017 Q1 and $13.8 billion in 2017 Q2.

The estimated actual external debt repayment differs from macroeconomic statistics by the amount of intragroup payments which are usually very likely to be prolonged and refinanced. The statistics suggest that total external debt repayments of non-financial organisations, including the principal and interest, will stand at $20.2 billion in the first quarter and $17.2 billion in the second quarter of the year.

Considerable payment volume in 2017 Q1 (including $12.8 billion in March) is formed by liabilities of top-30 Russian borrowers in the foreign market, of which roughly $4.4 billion are intragroup payments and $3.8 billion are scheduled eurobond redemptions by large companies holding sufficient amount of FX liquidity.

The Bank of Russia’s survey among major companies showed that intragroup loans account for the following share of total external debt repayments of large borrowers in the first half of 2017: 24% in January, 14% in February, 38% in March, 32% in April, 28% in May, and 42% in June.