Positive GDP growth expected in Q4

According to the December issue of information and analytical commentary ‘Economy: Facts, Evaluations and Commentary’, the Bank of Russia estimates show that seasonally-adjusted GDP growth in Q4 will enter positive territory.

The recovery of economic activity continued in November. Industrial production went up both year-on-year and compared to last month (seasonally-adjusted). External demand and development of import substitution supported output.

Growth of real wages also continued, however, households disposable income still declined. The circumstances prompted households to stick to savings. According to Bank of Russia estimates, sustainable rebound of consumer demand is to be expected no sooner than 2017 H1.

Dynamics of investment activity indicators varied in November: on the one hand, volume of construction works and production of machinery and equipment increased; on the other hand, import of investment goods went down.