Bank of Russia estimates actual external debt payments in 2019 H2

The estimates posted on the Bank of Russia website suggest that net external debt payments of Russian non-financial organisations may come in at $9.3 billion in 2019 Q3 (26% less than in the same period of the previous year) and $17.5 billion in 2019 Q4 (19% less than in 2018 Q4).

The estimated amounts of actual external debt payments differ from the available macroeconomic statistical data by the amount of intragroup payments calculated for the top 40 Russian corporate borrowers in the external market. Such payments tend to be prolonged or refinanced.

According to macrostatistical data, in 2019 Q3 and Q4, overall external debt payments of non-financial organisations, including principal and interest, total $11.8 billion and $19.3 billion respectively.

The Bank of Russia’s survey of top companies shows that the share of intragroup borrowings in major borrowers’ total external debt payments in 2019 is as follows: 0% – in July and August; 61% – in September; 0% – in October; 8% – in November; and 54% – in December.

In September, a significant amount of payments will be comprised mostly of intragroup financing that was regularly prolonged in previous periods.

Macroeconomic statistics show that a considerable amount of payments traditionally falls on December ($11.9 billion); however, historically, a sizeable amount of such payments tends to be carried over or restructured.