Bank of Russia estimates actual external debt payments in 2019 Q2 – Q3

The estimates posted on the Bank of Russia website suggest that net external debt payments of Russian non-financial organisations may come in at $14.2 billion in 2019 Q2 (close to the readings of 2018 Q2) and roughly $9 billion in 2019 Q3 (27% less than in the third quarter of the previous year).

The estimated amounts of external debt payments differ from the available macroeconomic statistical data in the sum of intragroup payments calculated for top 40 Russian corporate borrowers in the external market. Such payments tend to be prolonged or refinanced.

According to macrostatistical data, in 2019 Q2 and Q3, total external debt payments of non-financial organisations, including principal and interest, are set to total $14.7 billion and $11.4 billion respectively.

The Bank of Russia’s survey suggests that in 2019 the share of intragroup borrowings in major borrowers’ total external debt payments is as follows: 11% in April, 3% in May, 5% in June, 0% in July and August, and 61% in September.