Macroeconomic survey of the Bank of Russia
Survey results: April 2024*
| 2021 (факт) |
2022 (факт) |
2023 (факт) |
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ИПЦ (в % дек. к дек. пред. года) |
8,4 | 11,9 | 7,4 | 5,2 (5,2) |
4,1 (4,1) |
4,0 (4,0) |
|
| ИПЦ (% к пред. году, в среднем за год) |
6,7 | 13,8 | 5,9 | 6,9 (6,9) |
4,5 (4,4) |
4,0 (4,0) |
|
| Ключевая ставка (в % годовых, в среднем за год, с учетом выходных дней) |
5,7 | 10,6 | 9,9 | 14,9 (14,5) |
10,4 (9,4) |
8,1 (7,5) |
|
| ВВП (%, г/г) |
5,9 | -1,2 | 3,6 | 2,1 (1,8) |
1,7 (1,5) |
1,6 (1,5) |
|
| Уровень безработицы (%, дек., без исключения сезонности) |
4,3 | 3,6 | 3,0 | 3,0 (3,0) |
3,0 (3,1) |
3,0 (3,2) |
|
| Номинальная заработная плата (%, г/г) |
11,5 | 14,1 | 14,1 | 10,3 (9,9) |
7,1 (7,0) |
6,1 (6,1) |
|
| Баланс консолидированного бюджета (% ВВП за соответствующий год) |
0,8 | -1,4 | -2,3 | -1,3 (-1,5) |
-1,0 (-1,0) |
-1,0 (-1,0) |
|
| Экспорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
550 | 641 |
465 | 478 (472) |
482 (489) |
490 (490) |
|
| Импорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
380 | 347 | 379 | 385 (384) |
395 (397) |
409 (408) |
|
| Курс USD/RUB (руб. за долл., в среднем за год) |
73,7 | 67,4 | 85,2 | 92,9 (91,2) |
95,9 (93,8) |
98,0 (95,0) |
|
| Цена на нефть марки Brent (долл. США за баррель, в среднем за год) |
71 | 99 | 82 | 85 (80) |
80 (78) |
75 (75) |
|
| Показатели, рассчитанные на основе полученных ответов: | |||||||
| ВВП (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г.= 100) |
100,0 | 98,8 | 102,4 | 104,5 (104,2) |
106,3 (105,8) |
107,9 (107,3) |
|
| Реальная заработная плата** (%, г/г) |
4,5 | 0,3 | 7,8 | 3,2 (2,8) |
2,4 (2,5) |
2,0 (2,0) |
|
| Реальная заработная плата (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г. = 100) |
100,0 | 100,3 | 108,1 | 111,6 (111,1) |
114,3 (113,9) |
116,6 (116,2) |
|
| Торговый баланс (млрд долл. США в год) |
170 | 294 | 86 | 93 (88) |
87 (91) |
81 (82) |
|
| Нейтральная ключевая ставка (% годовых) |
Медиана | 7,0 (7,0) |
Уровень ключевой ставки, при котором денежно-кредитная политика поддерживает в долгосрочном периоде инфляцию и инфляционные ожидания на цели и ВВП на потенциальном уровне. | ||||
| Центр. тенденция |
(5,7-8,0) |
||||||
| Долгосрочный рост ВВП (%, г/г) |
Медиана | 1,5 (1,5) |
Ожидаемые средние темпы роста потенциального ВВП на горизонте 2027 — 2031 годов. | ||||
| Центр. тенденция |
(1,0-2,0) |
||||||
* In parentheses are the results of the March 2024 survey.
** The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the nominal wages and average for the year CPI.
Survey Dates: 12 — 16 April, 2024.
Calculation methodology: The survey results are the median of the 26 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.
The ranges of analysts’ forecasts for the next years (see the shaded areas in the charts) have generally narrowed for most indicators. At the same time, the ranges for the key rate, unemployment rate, USD/RUB exchange rate, exports, imports, Brent oil price are significantly widening by the end of the forecast period.
- Inflation: Forecasts are unchanged. Analysts expect that inflation will return to the target of close to 4% in 2025 and remain at this level further on.
- Key rate: Analysts have raised the average key rate forecast over the entire forecast horizon: to 14.9% per annum (+0.4 pp) for 2024, to 10.4% per annum (+1.0 pp) for 2025, to 8.1% per annum (+0.6 pp) for 2026. The neutral key rate estimate is unchanged at 7.0% per annum.
- GDP: Analysts have improved the GDP forecast to +2.1% (+0.3 pp) for 2024, to +1.7% (+0.2 pp) for 2025, to +1.6% (+0.1 pp) for the end of the forecast horizon. According to analysts, the GDP change in 2026 to the 2021 level will be +7.9% (+7.3% according to the March survey). The estimate of the long-term GDP growth rate is unchanged at +1.5% per annum.
- Unemployment rate: Analysts expect that unemployment will stay at 3.0% over the entire forecast horizon
(-0.1-0.2 pp in2025-2026 compared to the March survey). - Nominal wages: Analysts have raised their forecast for nominal wages growth to 10.3% (+0.4 pp) in 2024, followed by a deceleration to 7.1% in 2025 and to 6.1% by the end of the forecast horizon. Calculations based on analysts’ forecasts of nominal wages and average CPI suggest that real wages will increase by 3.2% (+0.4 pp) in 2024, by 2.4% in 2025 and by 2.0% in 2026. Accordingly, by the end of the forecast horizon, real wages will be 16.6% higher than in 2021.
- Consolidated budget balance: Analysts expect a slightly smaller consolidated budget deficit of 1.3% of GDP in 2024. According to analysts, consolidated budget deficit will decline to 1.0% of GDP in 2025 and 2026.
- Exports of goods and services: Analysts have slightly revised their forecast for 2024 upwards to $478 billion (+$6 billion) and downwards to $482 billion (-$7 billion) for 2025. The forecast for the end of the forecast horizon is unchanged at $490 billion, which is 11% lower than exports in 2021.
- Imports of goods and services: Forecasts have barely changed: $385 billion (+$1 billion) for 2024, $395 billion (-$2 billion) for 2025, $409 billion (+$1 billion) for 2026, which is 8% higher than imports in 2021.
- USD/RUB exchange rate: Analysts’ forecast for 2024 is 92.9 rubles per dollar, 95.9 rubles per dollar for 2025 and 98.0 rubles per dollar for 2026 (revised by
1.9–3.2% compared to the March survey). - Brent oil price: According to analysts’ expectations, the average Brent oil price in 2024 will be $85 per barrel (+$5 per barrel compared to the March survey). The price will then decrease to $80 per barrel in 2025 and to $75 per barrel in 2026.
CPI
%, Dec. to Dec. of the previous year
Key rate
% per annum, average for the year, including weekends
GDP
%, yoy
Unemployment rate
%, Dec, not seasonally adjusted
Nominal wages
%, yoy
Consolidated budget balance
% ВВП за соответствующий год
Exports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
Imports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
USD / RUB rate
руб. за долл., в среднем за год
Brent oil price
US dollars per barrel, average for the year
* Note: the upper and lower boundaries of the filled area on the graphs are equal to the maximum and minimum forecast.
The brighter area in the center is the 10 to 90th percentile range.
The next survey will be carried out from 24 to 28 May, 2024.
Survey participants
| Bloomberg Economics | Газпромбанк | НИФИ Минфина | Сбербанк ЦМИ | ЦМАКП |
| АКРА | ДОМ.РФ | Промсвязьбанк | Телеграм-канал MMI | Эксперт РА |
| Астра Управление активами | ИБ Синара | Райффайзенбанк | Телеграм-канал Твердые цифры | ЮниКредит банк |
| Альфа Банк | ИК РЕГИОН | Ренессанс Капитал | Телеграм-канал Мои инвестиции | |
| Банк ДОМ.РФ | ИНГ Банк Евразия | Росбанк | ФИНАМ | |
| БКС Мир инвестиций | ИНП РАН | Россельхозбанк | ФК Открытие | |
| ВЭБ.РФ | Институт Гайдара | Сбербанк КИБ | «Центр развития» НИУ ВШЭ |
Additional materials
Department responsible for publication:
Monetary Policy Department
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Last updated on: 17.04.2024