Macroeconomic survey of the Bank of Russia
Survey results: October 2024*
2021 (факт) |
2022 (факт) |
2023 (факт) |
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ИПЦ (в % дек. к дек. пред. года) |
8,4 |
11,9 |
7,4 |
7,7 |
5,3 |
4,1 |
4,0 |
|
ИПЦ (% к пред. году, в среднем за год) |
6,7 |
13,8 |
5,9 |
8,2 |
6,5 |
4,6 |
4,0 |
|
Ключевая ставка (в % годовых, в среднем за год, с учетом выходных дней) |
5,7 |
10,6 |
9,9 |
17,3 |
18,0 |
12,5 |
9,0 |
|
ВВП (%, г/г) |
5,9 |
-1,2 |
3,6 |
3,7 |
1,8 |
1,9 |
1,9 |
|
Уровень безработицы (%, дек., без исключения сезонности) |
4,3 |
3,6 |
3,0 |
2,5 |
2,7 |
2,9 |
3,0 |
|
Номинальная заработная плата (%, г/г) |
11,5 |
14,1 |
14,6 |
17,2 |
10,4 |
7,6 |
6,5 |
|
Баланс консолидированного бюджета (% ВВП за соответствующий год) |
0,8 |
-1,4 |
-2,3 |
-1,7 |
-1,1 |
-1,0 |
-1,0 |
|
Экспорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
550 |
641 |
466 |
470 |
475 |
485 |
493 |
|
Импорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
377 |
347 |
379 |
370 |
382 |
396 |
403 |
|
Курс USD/RUB (руб. за долл., в среднем за год) |
73,6 |
67,5 |
84,7 |
91,2 |
95 |
97,5 |
99,7 |
|
Цена на нефть марки Brent (долл. США за баррель, в среднем за год) |
71 |
99 |
82 |
81 |
77 |
75 |
72 |
|
Показатели, рассчитанные на основе полученных ответов: | ||||||||
ВВП (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г.= 100) |
100,0 |
98,8 |
102,4 |
106,1 |
108,0 |
110,0 |
112,2 |
|
Реальная заработная плата** (%, г/г) |
4,5 |
0,3 |
8,2 |
8,3 |
3,9 |
2,8 |
2,3 |
|
Реальная заработная плата (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г. = 100) |
100,0 |
100,3 |
108,5 |
117,6 |
122,0 |
125,8 |
127,9 |
|
Торговый баланс (млрд долл. США в год) |
173 |
293 |
86 |
99 |
92 |
87 |
84 |
|
Нейтральная ключевая ставка (% годовых) |
Медиана | 8,0 |
Уровень ключевой ставки, при котором денежно-кредитная политика поддерживает в долгосрочном периоде инфляцию и инфляционные ожидания на цели и ВВП на потенциальном уровне. | |||||
Центр. тенденция |
||||||||
Долгосрочный рост ВВП (%, г/г) |
Медиана | 1,8 |
Ожидаемые средние темпы роста потенциального ВВП на горизонте 2028 — 2032 годов. | |||||
Центр. тенденция |
* In parentheses are the results of the September 2024 survey.
** The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the nominal wages and average for the year CPI.
Survey Dates: 11 — 15 October, 2024.
Calculation methodology: The survey results are the median of the 27 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.
The ranges of analysts’ forecasts for the next years (see the shaded areas in the charts) have narrowed for most indicators. At the same time, the ranges for GDP growth, unemployment rate, USD/RUB exchange rate, exports, imports, Brent oil price are widening by the end of the forecast period.
- Inflation: Inflation forecast has been raised to 7.7% in 2024 (+0.4 pp compared to the September survey) and to 5.3% in 2025 (+0.5 pp). Analysts expect that inflation will return to the target in 2026 and remain at this level further on.
- Key rate: Analysts have raised the average key rate forecast over the entire forecast horizon. The median forecast for 2024 is 17.3% per annum (+0.2 pp). It implies that the average key rate in October—December 2024 will amount to 20.0% per annum. Analysts forecast that the key rate will average 18.0% per annum (+1.9 pp) in 2025, 12.5% per annum (+1.0 pp) in 2026. The forecast for the end of the horizon (9.0% per annum) is somewhat higher than the median estimate of the neutral key rate (8.0% per annum).
- GDP: Forecast for 2024 has been raised to 3.7% (+0.1 pp). Analysts expect GDP to grow by
1.8-1.9% in2025–2027. The median estimate of the long-term GDP growth rate has remained unchanged at 1.8%. According to analysts, the GDP growth in 2027 to the 2021 level will total +12.2% (+11.6%, according to the September survey). - Unemployment rate: Analysts have somewhat lowered their forecast for
2024–2026. They expect that unemployment will decline to 2.5% (-0.1 pp) in 2024, increase to 2.7% (-0.1 pp) in 2025, to 2.9% (-0.1 pp) in 2026 and then return to the 2023 level of 3.0% by the end of the forecast horizon. - Nominal wages: Analysts have once again raised their forecast for nominal wage growth to 17.2% (+1.2 pp) in 2024, followed by a deceleration to 10.4% (+1.4 pp) in 2025, to 7.6% (+0.6 pp) in 2026 and to 6.5% (-0.1 pp) by the end of the forecast horizon. Calculations based on analysts’ forecasts of nominal wages and average CPI suggest that real wages will increase by 8.3% in 2024, by 3.9% in 2025, by 2.8% in 2026 and by 2.3% in 2027. Accordingly, by the end of the forecast horizon, real wages will be 27.9% higher than in 2021 (24.9% higher, according to the September survey).
- Consolidated budget balance: Analysts expect higher consolidated budget deficit over the entire forecast horizon compared to the September survey: 1.7% of GDP in 2024, followed by a decline to 1.1% of GDP in 2025 and to 1.0% of GDP in
2026–2027. - Exports of goods and services: Analysts have barely changed their forecast for
2024–2026: $470 billion in 2024, $475 billion (-$3 billion) in 2025, $485 billion (-$1 billion) in 2026. The estimate for 2027 is $493 billion (-$5 billion), which is 10% ($57 billion) lower than exports in 2021. - Imports of goods and services: Forecasts for
2024–2026 have also seen no significant changes: $370 billion (+$1 billion) in 2024, $382 billion (-$3 billion) in 2025, $396 billion (-$1 billion) for 2026. The estimate for the end of the forecast horizon is $403 billion (-$6 billion), which is 7% ($26 billion) higher than imports in 2021. - USD/RUB exchange rate: Analysts’ forecast for 2024 is 91.2 rubles per dollar (it implies that the average exchange rate in October—December 2024 will amount to 94.2 rubles per dollar), 95.0 rubles per dollar for 2025, 97.5 rubles per dollar for 2026 and 99.7 rubles per dollar for 2027 (the ruble is
0.6-1.1% weaker compared to the September survey). - Brent oil price: Analysts have slightly lowered their forecast. According to their expectations, the average Brent oil price will total $81 per barrel in 2024 (it implies that the average price in October—December 2024 will amount to 79 rubles per barrel). The price will then decrease to $77 per barrel in 2025, to $75 per barrel in 2026 and to $72 per barrel in 2027.
CPI
Key rate
GDP
GDP
Unemployment rate
Nominal wages
Real wages
Consolidated budget balance
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Trade balance
USD / RUB rate
Brent oil price
* Note: the upper and lower boundaries of the filled area on the graphs are equal to the maximum and minimum forecast.
The brighter area in the center is the 10 to 90th percentile range.
The next survey will be carried out from 6 to 10 December, 2024.
Survey participants
Bloomberg Economics | Газпромбанк | Институт Гайдара | Сбербанк КИБ | ФИНАМ |
АКРА | ДОМ.РФ | НИФИ Минфина | Сбербанк ЦМИ | «Центр развития» НИУ ВШЭ |
Астра Управление активами | Евразийский Банк Развития (ЕАБР) | Промсвязьбанк | Телеграм-канал Helicopter Macro | ЦМАКП |
Альфа Банк | ИБ Синара | Райффайзенбанк | Телеграм-канал Truevalue | Эксперт РА |
Банк ДОМ.РФ | ИК РЕГИОН | Ренессанс Капитал | Телеграм-канал Мои инвестиции | ЮниКредит банк |
БКС Мир инвестиций | ИНГ Банк Евразия | Росбанк | Телеграм-канал Твердые цифры | |
ВЭБ.РФ | ИНП РАН | Россельхозбанк | Т-Инвестиции |