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estimate of the neutral key rate to 6.0–7.0% per annum.
ANALYSTS’ CONSENSUS FORECASTS Chart В-1
Key rate Neutral key rate Inflation Nominal
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22.11.2023
elevating proinflationary risks.
Key rate and monetary indicators
4
Monetary policy aims to return inflation to the target in 2024
The future key rate path
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22.11.2023
forecast underlying its key rate decisions.
Inflationary pressure and inflation expectations decline
Macroeconomic forecast has been materially revised
Monetary conditions remain tight
Key rate decisions
1
rates and yields in the key market segments, Through any of these channels, higher
influencing each other (the key rate has a direct market
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20.11.2023
that allows sellers to gradually transfer increased costs into prices was the key inflation driver.
Prices for food products and non-food goods began to rise
made for them. Accrued interest receivable/ The Bank of Russia key rate (hereinafter, the key rate) is an
payable is included in related type of
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16.11.2023
2024 and, accordingly, will be able to start cutting the key rate. However, the key rate will stay high for a certain period needed to
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15.11.2023
of its use), that is, would have ignored the effect of the key rate increase and considerably reduced the affordability of retail loans.
With regard
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09.11.2023
circumstances, in October, we raised the key rate to 15%, while giving a neutral signal. Our forecast of the key rate assumes that it can
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09.11.2023
Telegram
The ruble strengthened on the back of the Bank of Russia key rate increase and a rise in foreign currency sales by exporters.
At