Summary of the Key Rate Discussion released
The publication covers the main aspects of the discussion about the economic situation and inflation, monetary and external conditions, and alternatives to the key rate decision.
According to the discussants, the economy continued to return to a balanced growth path. Monetary conditions were gradually easing but remained tight, curbing inflation. That said, current price growth rates have been significantly fluctuating in recent months due to changes in certain commodity markets. As a result of a slowdown in these rates in November–early December, inflation for 2025 will be below 6% at year end.
In early 2026, price growth will accelerate temporarily under the influence of one-off proinflationary factors. A precise assessment of the scale of their impact will be possible later. Nevertheless, the low inflation rate that has already been achieved gives room for a cautious easing of monetary policy.
Following the discussion, the Board of Directors decided to cut the key rate by 50 bp to 16.00% per annum. Further decisions will depend on the sustainability of the slowdown in inflation and the dynamics of inflation expectations.
According to the Bank of Russia’s forecast, annual inflation will decline to 4.0–5.0% in 2026. Underlying inflation will reach 4% in 2026 H2. From 2027 onwards, annual inflation will remain at the target.