Bank of Russia 2025 forecast of key banking sector indicators remains unchanged
In 2025 Q1, the corporate portfolio contracted by 0.1% after expanding by 2.9% in 2024 Q4. These dynamics resulted from large budget expenditures under public procurement contracts in January—February 2025 and high loan rates. However, the 2025 forecast remains within the
Outstanding mortgage loans barely changed, but new mortgages were down by a third, due to the traditional slowdown in lending activity at the beginning of the year and high market rates. Government subsidised programmes accounted for around 85% of total new mortgages, while market-based mortgage lending was growing considerably more slowly. The mortgage portfolio is expected to expand moderately by
The consumer loan portfolio continued to contract amid tight monetary and macroprudential policies (-1.4%), predominantly in the segment of cash loans. Therefore, the 2025 forecast remains the same, ranging from —1% to +4%.
Since the dynamics of the main banking sector indicators are in line with the Bank of Russia’s expectations, the net profit forecast for 2025 remains within the range of ₽3.0—3.5 trillion. More details are available in the quarterly review Banking Sector.