Summary of the Key Rate Discussion released
The publication covers the main aspects of the discussion about the economic situation and inflation, monetary and external conditions, and alternatives to the key rate decision.
According to the participants in the discussion, the impact of the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy measures on demand and prices has become more pronounced. In 2025 Q1, current inflationary pressures eased, albeit unevenly across various groups of goods and services. The growth of non-food prices decelerated considerably, whereas food and services prices were still rising at a fast pace. Lending continued to expand modestly, while household deposits were actively growing. Domestic demand was increasing more slowly as compared with the previous quarters. Labour shortages became less acute. In addition, there were more signs indicating that the economic overheating had started to decrease. However, according to the meeting, more time is needed to make sure these trends are sustainable.
Following the discussion, on 25 April 2025, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to keep the key rate at 21.00% per annum. The Bank of Russia’s further decisions on the key rate will depend on the speed and sustainability of the decline in inflation and inflation expectations.
The discussants concurred that the Russian economy was generally developing close to the Bank of Russia’s forecast. A prolonged period of tight monetary policy is still required for inflation to return to 4% in 2026. More details on the Bank of Russia’s view of future economic developments are available in the Commentary on the Bank of Russia’s Medium-term Forecast.