Bank of Russia estimates external debt payments due between 2018 Q4 and 2019 Q1

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Russian non-financial organisations’ external debt payments are estimated to total $20.8 billion in 2018 Q4 and $10.5 billion in 2019 Q1, according to a Bank of Russia forecast published on the regulator's website.

Its estimated amounts of external debt payments differ from the available macroeconomic statistical data in the sum of intragroup payments calculated for the top 40 Russian corporate borrowers in the external market. Such payments tend to be prolonged or refinanced.

According to macrostatistical data, between 2018 Q4 and 2019 Q1, total external debt payments of non-financial institutions, including principal and interest, are set to total $21.8 billion and 10.7 billion respectively.

Macroeconomic statistics show that a considerable amount of payments traditionally falls on December ($12.8 billion); however, in practice, a sizeable amount of such payments tends to be carried over or restructured.

The Bank of Russia’s survey of top companies suggests that in 2018 the share of intragroup borrowings in major borrowers’ total external debt payments is as follows: 1% – October, 3% – November, 39% – December; in 2019: 0% – January, 0% – February, 6% – March. Adjusted for intragroup payments, major companies’ payments in 2018 Q4 are estimated to equal those in the comparable period of 2017, while 2019 Q1 payments are expected to drop 42% against those in 2018 Q1.

19 October 2018

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