Inflation growth in September is largely driven by rising fruit and vegetable prices

Elevated inflationary pressure is associated with a rise in demand exceeding the expansion in the output of goods and services as well as higher prices in global commodity markets and logistics problems worldwide. In September, annual growth in prices for certain food goods and motor cars maintained an upward trend. However, motor fuel prices increased at a slower pace.

Monthly indicators of sustainable price dynamics (seasonally adjusted) changed diversely, but remained high.

Considering the new data, the inflation forecast will be adjusted together with the Bank of Russia's mid-term forecast following the core meeting of the Bank of Russia Board of Directors on the key rate scheduled for 22 October. Additional one-off proinflationary factors can keep inflation expectations elevated for a longer period. Given the current monetary policy stance, including future key rate decisions, annual inflation will edge down to 4.0–4.5% in 2022 and stay close to 4% further on.