Price stability is the main goal of the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy, which implies steadily low inflation close to 4%. It is an important element of an environment that is favourable for living and doing business.
PRINCIPLES OF THE BANK OF RUSSIA’S MONETARY POLICY:
Setting a public quantitative inflation target
The key rate and communication as the main monetary policy instruments
Forecast-based decisions
Communication
transparency
Baseline scenario
The Russian and global economies continue to grow. Vaccination will support this trend, provided that vaccines are effective against new strains. GDP will rise by 4.0–4.5% in 2021, stabilising on a balanced growth path at 2–3% beginning from 2022. Annual inflation will return into the range of 4.0–4.5% by the end of 2022 with the key rate averaging 5.7–5.8% p.a. in 2021 and 7.3–8.3% p.a. in 2022. As inflation expectations lower and inflation edges down, the Bank of Russia will return the key rate into its long-term neutral range of 5–6% p.a.
| Inflation, % in December YoY |
| Gross domestic product |
| Key rate, % p.a., average over the year |
| Banking system’s claims on the economy in rubles and foreign currency, including: |
| ●on businesses |
| ● on households, including: |
| —housing mortgage loans |
| Growth, % YoY, unless indicated otherwise | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 (actual) | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| 4.9 |
|
|
4.0 | 4.0 |
| -3.0 |
|
|
|
|
| 5.1 |
|
|
|
|
| 10.9 |
|
|
|
|
| 10.2 | ||||
| 12.9 | ||||
| 21.6 | ||||
| Source: Bank of Russia | ||||
Alternative scenarios
Diagram of the scenarios assumed in the Bank of Russia’s macroeconomic forecast
Worsening Pandemic
GDP growth will be close to zero in 2022, accelerating to
Global Inflation
In 2022, a more active expansion of the world economy will provide additional support to Russia’s GDP. However, this growth will be accompanied by a rise in persistent inflationary pressure worldwide, which will make major economies terminate their accommodative policies earlier than assumed in the baseline scenario. As the level of inflation worldwide and global interest rates will be elevated, the Bank of Russia will have to tighten its monetary policy, as compared to the baseline scenario, in order to bring inflation back to the target in the second half of the forecast period.
Financial Crisis
This scenario involves the risks associated with a surge in debt burden in the global economy caused by the pandemic. It assumes that as countries move away from accommodative policies, the conditions in the global financial system will deteriorate drastically and rapidly. This will drag down Russia’s GDP in 2023, while further on, in 2024, economic activity will bounce back. If a financial crisis breaks out, followed by a weakening of the ruble, this will become a significant, although temporary proinflationary factor. As a damping measure, the Bank of Russia will have to conduct tighter monetary policy in early 2023 as compared to the Global inflation scenario. In 2023 H2, price growth and inflation expectations will start to edge down, which will enable the Bank of Russia to shift towards monetary policy easing supporting the economy.
➊ The key rate was kept unchanged until February 2021
The Bank of Russia reduced the key rate to its record low of 4.25% p.a. in July 2020, after which kept it unchanged for several months. At the end of 2020 — the beginning of 2021, in response to accelerating inflation, the Bank of Russia started to tighten its signals regarding future monetary policy. The disinflationary effect of demand was exhausted earlier than was expected during the period of toughest restrictions, while the pressure put on prices by higher producer costs, fuelled by increasing prices in global commodity markets, strengthened. Moreover, in contrast to expectations, the second wave of the pandemic had a proinflationary, rather than disinflationary impact. This was because anti-coronavirus restrictions had been eased and both households and businesses had already adjusted to the new conditions.
➋ The key rate was raised in March—October 2021
Over this period, inflationary pressure intensified, predominantly driven by a faster rise in demand amid a slower recovery of supply. The impact of demand-side factors was intensified by pressure caused by companies’ increased costs. Proinflationary factors and risks prevailed considerably. Inflation continued to accelerate. Households’ inflation expectations and businesses’ price expectations rose to their five-year highs. In order to limit the risks of a more significant and longer-lasting deviation of inflation upwards from the target, the Bank of Russia raised the key rate by a total of 3.25 pp over this period to 7.50% p.a."
Future monetary policy
Without hindering the steady growth of Russia’s economy, the approved decisions on the key rate will help slow down annual inflation to 4.0–4.5% by the end of 2022. In 2023 and further on, if the situation develops in line with the baseline scenario, inflation will stay close to 4%.
The operational objective of the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy is to keep overnight money market rates close to the key rate. In 2021, in order to achieve its operational objective in the conditions of a structural liquidity surplus, the Bank of Russia continued to use one-week deposit auctions as the main instrument for this purpose. The deviation of RUONIA from the key rate equalled 18 bp in January–the first half of October 2021, which is evidence of the efficient pursuing of the operational objective.
When uncertainty is high, it is especially important for the central bank to be open and transparent. The Bank of Russia continued to enhance its communication.
Publication of the projected path of the key rate
Beginning from April 2021, the Bank of Russia publishes the projected path of the key rate in its medium-term forecast. The projected path is presented as ranges of the average key rate for every calendar year. This path is in line with the macroeconomic conditions of the Bank of Russia’s baseline forecast and monetary policy aimed at maintaining price stability, namely keeping inflation close to 4% on a continuous basis. (Methodological note)
Materials on the model-based approaches
The new section on the Bank of Russia website about the model-based approaches to macroeconomic analysis and forecasting provides more comprehensive information to experts and analysts about the process of making monetary policy decisions.