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11
upcoming meetings
1
Inflation
is close to 4%
Inflation and BoR key rate, YoY
In September, annual inflation stood at 3.7%. Inflation processes are
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1
Inflation slowdown
is still overshooting the forecast
Inflation and BoR key rate, YoY
In January, annual inflation declined to 2.4%. The inflation slowdown
13
Elevated inflationary pressure is becoming increasingly persistent
Inflation (% YoY) and the Bank of Russia key rate (% p.a.)
Inflation is evolving appreciably above the October
14
inflation will be returning to around 4%
2
Household inflation expectations decline but stay above the 2018 lows
Household inflation expectations and inflation, YoY
Inflation
15
temporary.
Inflation trends are expected to reverse in the middle of the year. Annualised monthly inflation will begin to go down, although annual inflation will
16
mounted
on the back of temporary factors
Inflation (% YoY) and the Bank of Russia key rate (% p.a.)
Inflation had been evolving significantly above the
17
reflects the monetary nature of inflation.
Annual inflation will plateau close to Q1 values until the middle of the year. Inflation forecast for the end
18
and 7.3–8.3% p.a. in 2022. As inflation expectations lower and inflation edges down, the Bank of Russia will return the key
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and imports. Rising inflation is coupled with elevated inflation expectations, which involves risks of secondary effects for inflation.
The forecast of annual inflation for 2021
20
reach its pre-pandemic levels already by late 2021.
2
Inflation forecast for
2021 has been increased
Inflation and the Bank of Russia, YoY
Annual price