Estimate of Key Aggregates of the Balance of Payments of the Russian Federation

The essentials:

The Bank of Russia published the first estimate of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation in September 2024 and revised the estimates for July — August 2024 due to the receipt of additional reporting data as of October 11, 2024.

The current account balance in September 2024 amounted to $7.0 billion against $2.9 billion deficit in August 2024. The increase in the current account surplus is due to a growth in exports of goods and a seasonal decline in imports of services.

In January — September 2024, the current account surplus totaled $50.6 billion ($38.8 billion a year earlier). The key driver was an increase in the trade balance surplus, which was related to a reduction in imports of goods, and also a slight decrease in the balance on primary and secondary income.

Key Aggregates in details in September 2024:

• the trade balance surplus amounted to $12.6 billion, having increased compared to the revised figure in August 2024 primarily due to the increase in physical volumes of exports of goods;
• the deficit in the balance on services reduced by $1.2 billion to $3.8 billion mainly due to a seasonal drop in Russians’ spendings during foreign trips;
• the total deficit in primary and secondary income grew slightly and amounted to $1.8 billion;
• foreign assets (excluding reserve assets) grew by $9.5 (decreased by $0.7 billion a month earlier) due to a growth in other investment, among other things, as a consequence of increased lags in settlements for foreign economic activities;
• external liabilities increased by $4.4 billion (reduced by $9.5 billion a month earlier) due to the accumulation of non-resident funds in accounts in Russian banks;
• reserve assets grew by $0.1 billion (declined by $2.7 billion a month earlier).

Key Aggregates in January – September 2024:

• the trade balance surplus grew to $102.8 billion against $90.2 billion in January – September 2023 primarily due to the decline in imports with a stable exports of goods. The estimate in August 2024 was increased for exports and imports of goods, taking into account the received reporting data from the Federal Customs Service;
• the deficit in the balance on services increased by $3.2 billion to $30.0 billion mainly as a result of the growth in imports of travel services;
• the deficit in primary and secondary income decreased by $2.5 billion and amounted to $22.1 billion, among other things, due to a decline in personal transfers payable;
• foreign assets (excluding reserve assets) grew by $50.3 billion (by $39.8 billion a year earlier) due to the growth in other investment, among other things, as a consequence of increased lags in settlements for foreign economic activities;
• the reduction in external liabilities made up $15.1 billion (growth by $1.2 billion in January – September 2023), which was mainly associated with the reduction in liabilities on raised loans, including within the framework of direct investment relationship;
• international reserves declined by $11.4 billion (by $8.8 billion a year earlier) mainly as a result of transactions with the funds of the National Wealth Fund and transactions to regulate foreign exchange currency liquidity based on currency swap transactions.

Current account components, in billions of US dollars