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Bank of Russia’s Monetary Policy Review: planned analytical work and events

In 2021–2022, the Bank of Russia will carry out a comprehensive analysis of its monetary policy over the period of inflation targeting (IT). The objective of this review is to assess how effective the selected regime is and how well the current monetary policy parameters conform to the changing environment.

Since 2015, the Bank of Russia has been implementing its monetary policy under the IT regime. The transition to this regime took place stage by stage during several years. Switching to IT, the Bank of Russia defined the objective of its monetary policy framework to reduce annual inflation to 4% in 2017 and maintain it close to this level further on.

The years of 2015 and 2016 were a period of disinflation when the Russian economy was overcoming the consequences of the external shocks of 2014 and adjusting gradually to the new monetary policy framework. Owing to the monetary policy pursued and considering the time lags in its effect on the economy, the inflation rate approached the Bank of Russia’s target by early 2017. Beginning from 2017, annual inflation hovered around 4% on average, staying at its record lows.

As the transition to the IT regime was completed more than six years ago already, the Bank of Russia considers it reasonable to carry out a comprehensive analysis of the conditions of monetary policy implementation and the results achieved over this period — the Monetary Policy Review (MPR). In the future, the Bank of Russia plans to make such reviews regularly, every five years.

Analytical work

Within the MPR project, the Bank of Russia’s research units will carry out analysis in six blocks of topics (work streams):

The results of the analytical work within the six work streams are planned to be published simultaneously on the Bank of Russia website as authored analytical notes. Alongside the analytical notes, the Bank of Russia will release a summary report comprehensively presenting the findings based on the completed work and proposals regarding a possible adjustment of the parameters of the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy.

Public consultations

Communication transparency is crucial to promote the society’s confidence in the monetary policy pursued. Therefore, the Bank of Russia believes it essential to carry out a public discussion of the issues studied in the course of the MPR.

The Bank of Russia will hold a series of public consultations, including with the engagement of its regional branches. Representatives of the Bank of Russia will carry out meetings with business associations representing a wide range of industries of Russia’s economy, small, medium-sized and large enterprises, government authorities, the academic and expert community, including professional financial market participants, and citizens from various social and demographic groups. An open dialogue will provide a more thorough understanding of the society’s perception of inflation and the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy. These meetings (panel discussions, sessions at economic conferences and forums, workshops, etc.) are planned to be held in 2021 Q4—2022 H1. The exact schedule and format of these events will be determined later, taking into account the epidemic situation, among other things.

The MPR completion

The planned cycle of analytical works and events and the comprehensive consideration of their findings will last for four quarters. The results of the MPR will be presented by the middle of 2022.

During 2022 Q2, the Bank of Russia will release analytical notes and the summary report. By the middle of 2022, the Bank of Russia will make decisions on adjusting the parameters of monetary policy based on the results of the completed analytical work. These decisions will be taken into account when preparing the Monetary Policy Guidelines for 2023–2025

Important

Useful Links

Department responsible for publication: Monetary Policy Department
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Last updated on: 06.10.2021