Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sophia Panteeva
Author-Email: panteewa.sofi@yandex.ru
Author-Workplace-Name: Bank of Russia
Author-Name: Sergey Arzhenovskiy
Author-Email: sarzhenov@gmail.com
Author-Workplace-Name: Bank of Russia
Author-Name: Karen Tumanyants
Author-Email: karen.tumanyants@yandex.ru
Author-Workplace-Name: Bank of Russia
Title: Semi-Structural Model of Economy of the Southern Macroregion of Russia
Abstract: This paper presents a modified semi-structural New Keynesian model for the Southern macroregion in gaps. The main features of the model include: the division of the economy into the Southern macroregion, the rest of Russia, and the external sector; using separate inflation components for food and non-food goods and for utility and non-utility services; taking into account the sectors of specialisation of the macroregion – agriculture and tourism; the inclusion of a fiscal block and a labour market block with a description of the dynamics of wages and unemployment; and restrictions on capital flows in the conditions of uncovered interest rate parity. The adequacy of the model is confirmed by an analysis of the impulse responses of the macro variables to shocks and by a decomposition of the output gap and inflation. The model makes it possible to formulate consistent forecasts of the key economic indicators of the Southern macroregion and to assess the impact of monetary policy on its economy.
Classification-JEL: C51, C54, E37, E52
Keywords: semi-structural model, quarterly forecast model, monetary policy, inflation, output gap, Southern macroregion
Journal: Russian Journal of Money and Finance
Pages: 65-88
Volume: 84
Issue: 2
Year: 2025
Month: June
DOI:
File-URL: https://rjmf.econs.online/upload/documents/RJMF-84-2-Semi-Structural-Model-of-Economy-of-the-Southern-Macroregion-of-Russia.pdf
Handle: RePEc:bkr:journl:v:84:y:2025:i:2:p:65-88