Macroeconomic survey of the Bank of Russia
Survey results: May 2024*
| 2021 (факт) |
2022 (факт) |
2023 (факт) |
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ИПЦ (в % дек. к дек. пред. года) |
8,4 | 11,9 | 7,4 | 5,5 (5,2) |
4,2 (4,1) |
4,0 (4,0) |
|
| ИПЦ (% к пред. году, в среднем за год) |
6,7 | 13,8 | 5,9 | 7,1 (6,9) |
4,7 (4,5) |
4,1 (4,0) |
|
| Ключевая ставка (в % годовых, в среднем за год, с учетом выходных дней) |
5,7 | 10,6 | 9,9 | 15,9 (14,9) |
12,4 (10,4) |
9,4 (8,1) |
|
| ВВП (%, г/г) |
5,9 | -1,2 | 3,6 | 2,9 (2,1) |
1,7 (1,7) |
1,6 (1,6) |
|
| Уровень безработицы (%, дек., без исключения сезонности) |
4,3 | 3,6 | 3,0 | 2,8 (3,0) |
3,0 (3,0) |
3,0 (3,0) |
|
| Номинальная заработная плата (%, г/г) |
11,5 | 14,1 | 14,1 | 12,8 (10,3) |
7,8 (7,1) |
6,8 (6,1) |
|
| Баланс консолидированного бюджета (% ВВП за соответствующий год) |
0,8 | -1,4 | -2,3 | -1,2 (-1,3) |
-0,9 (-1,0) |
-0,8 (-1,0) |
|
| Экспорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
550 | 641 |
465 | 479 (478) |
486 (482) |
490 (490) |
|
| Импорт товаров и услуг (млрд долл. США в год) |
380 | 347 | 379 | 383 (385) |
395 (395) |
404 (409) |
|
| Курс USD/RUB (руб. за долл., в среднем за год) |
73,6 | 67,5 | 84,7 | 92,3 (92,9) |
96,2 (95,9) |
98,3 (98,0) |
|
| Цена на нефть марки Brent (долл. США за баррель, в среднем за год) |
71 | 99 | 82 | 84 (85) |
80 (80) |
75 (75) |
|
| Показатели, рассчитанные на основе полученных ответов: | |||||||
| ВВП (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г.= 100) |
100,0 | 98,8 | 102,4 | 105,3 (104,5) |
107,1 (106,3) |
108,8 (107,9) |
|
| Реальная заработная плата** (%, г/г) |
4,5 | 0,3 | 7,8 | 5,4 (3,2) |
3,0 (2,4) |
2,4 (2,0) |
|
| Реальная заработная плата (кумулятивный уровень, 2021 г. = 100) |
100,0 | 100,3 | 108,1 | 113,9 (111,6) |
117,3 (114,3) |
120,2 (116,6) |
|
| Торговый баланс (млрд долл. США в год) |
170 | 294 | 86 | 95 (93) |
92 (87) |
86 (81) |
|
| Нейтральная ключевая ставка (% годовых) |
Медиана | 7,5 (7,0) |
Уровень ключевой ставки, при котором денежно-кредитная политика поддерживает в долгосрочном периоде инфляцию и инфляционные ожидания на цели и ВВП на потенциальном уровне. | ||||
| Центр. тенденция |
(6,0-8,0) |
||||||
| Долгосрочный рост ВВП (%, г/г) |
Медиана | 1,5 (1,5) |
Ожидаемые средние темпы роста потенциального ВВП на горизонте 2027 — 2031 годов. | ||||
| Центр. тенденция |
(0,9-2,0) |
||||||
* In parentheses are the results of the April 2024 survey.
** The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the nominal wages and average for the year CPI.
Survey Dates: 24 — 28 May, 2024.
Calculation methodology: The survey results are the median of the 27 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey.
The ranges of analysts’ forecasts for the next years (see the shaded areas in the charts) have narrowed for most indicators. At the same time, the ranges for the key rate, unemployment rate, USD/RUB exchange rate, exports, imports, Brent oil price are significantly widening by the end of the forecast period.
- Inflation: Inflation forecast for 2024 has been raised to 5.5% (+0.3 pp compared to the April survey). Analysts expect that inflation will return to the target of close to 4% in 2025 and remain at this level further on.
- Key rate: Analysts have raised the average key rate forecast over the entire forecast horizon: to 15.9% per annum (+1.0 pp) for 2024, to 12.4% per annum (+2.0 pp) for 2025, to 9.4% per annum (+1.3 pp) for 2026. This also reflects a higher estimate of the neutral key rate — 7.5% per annum (+0.5 pp).
- GDP: Forecast for 2024 has been raised by 0.8 pp to 2.9%. The forecast for 2025, 2026, as well as the estimate of the long-term GDP growth rate are unchanged at 1.7%, 1.6% and 1.5%, respectively. According to analysts, the GDP change in 2026 to the 2021 level will be +8.8% (+7.9% according to the April survey).
- Unemployment rate: Analysts expect that unemployment will decline to 2.8% (-0.2 pp) in 2024 and will then return to the 2023 level of 3.0%.
- Nominal wages: Analysts have raised their forecast for nominal wages growth to 12.8% (+2.5 pp) in 2024, followed by a deceleration to 7.8% (+0.7 pp) in 2025 and to 6.8% (+0.7 pp) by the end of the forecast horizon. Calculations based on analysts’ forecasts of nominal wages and average CPI suggest that real wages will increase by 5.4% (+2.2 pp) in 2024, by 3.0% (+0.6 pp) in 2025, by 2.4% (+0.4 pp) in 2026. Accordingly, by the end of the forecast horizon, real wages will be 20.2% higher than in 2021 (16.6% higher, according to the April survey).
- Consolidated budget balance: Analysts expect a slightly smaller consolidated budget deficit of 1.2% of GDP in 2024, followed by a decline to 0.9% in 2025 and to 0.8% by the end of the forecast horizon.
- Exports of goods and services: No significant changes: $479 billion (+$1 billion) in 2024, $486 billion (+$4 billion) in 2025 and $490 billion in 2026, which is 11% lower than exports in 2021.
- Imports of goods and services: Forecasts have barely changed: $383 billion (-$2 billion) for 2024, $395 billion for 2025 and $404 billion (-$5 billion) for 2026, which is 6% higher than imports in 2021.
- USD/RUB exchange rate: Analysts’ forecast for 2024 is 92.3 rubles per dollar, 96.2 rubles per dollar for 2025 and 98.3 rubles per dollar for 2026 (revised by
−0.6–0.3% compared to the April survey). - Brent oil price: According to analysts’ expectations, the average Brent oil price in 2024 will be $84 per barrel. The price will then decrease to $80 per barrel in 2025 and to $75 per barrel in 2026.
CPI
%, Dec. to Dec. of the previous year
Key rate
% per annum, average for the year, including weekends
GDP
%, yoy
Unemployment rate
%, Dec, not seasonally adjusted
Nominal wages
%, yoy
Consolidated budget balance
% ВВП за соответствующий год
Exports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
Imports of goods and services
billions of US dollars per year
USD / RUB rate
руб. за долл., в среднем за год
Brent oil price
US dollars per barrel, average for the year
* Note: the upper and lower boundaries of the filled area on the graphs are equal to the maximum and minimum forecast.
The brighter area in the center is the 10 to 90th percentile range.
The next survey will be carried out from 12 to 16 July, 2024.
Survey participants
| Bloomberg Economics | Газпромбанк | НИФИ Минфина | Сбербанк ЦМИ | ЦМАКП |
| АКРА | ДОМ.РФ | Промсвязьбанк | Телеграм-канал MMI | Эксперт РА |
| Астра Управление активами | ИБ Синара | Райффайзенбанк | Телеграм-канал Твердые цифры | ЮниКредит банк |
| Альфа Банк | ИК РЕГИОН | Ренессанс Капитал | Телеграм-канал Мои инвестиции | |
| Банк ДОМ.РФ | ИНГ Банк Евразия | Росбанк | Тинькофф Инвестиции | |
| БКС Мир инвестиций | ИНП РАН | Россельхозбанк | ФИНАМ | |
| ВЭБ.РФ | Институт Гайдара | Сбербанк КИБ | «Центр развития» НИУ ВШЭ |
Additional materials
Department responsible for publication:
Monetary Policy Department
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Last updated on: 29.05.2024